MatchWiz

Andrés Chaparro

Andrés Chaparro — hitting .286 in our graded log with 13 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
81.7
RBIs · vs NYM · 2026-09-27
Our calls on him · hits
75%
1+ hit in 6/8 top-20 calls
Games graded
75
this season, box-score final
Andrés Chaparro
1BBats RThrows RWashington Nationals
RBIs81.7/100proj 0.6#9Runs70/100proj 0.6#11H+R+RBI68.3/100proj 1.9#25Fantasy Points58.6/100proj 7.2#50Walks57.8/100proj 0.4#31Doubles50.4/100proj 0.2#28Hits49.6/100proj 1#115Home Runs48/100proj 0.2#23Total Bases47/100proj 1.7#45Singles29.1/100proj 0.5#228Triples9.7/100proj 0#101Stolen Bases1.5/100proj 0#263

Last scored matchup

Andrés isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, at home against New York Mets on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on rbis (81.7/100), runs (70/100), h+r+rbi (68.3/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

He's swinging a hot bat

Andrés is 11-for-29 (.379) over his last 10 games — well clear of his .286 season mark. He's hit safely in 4 straight. Our model does lean on recent form, but it weights it against the matchup rather than chasing it: a hot bat facing a tough arm in a bad park still grades as a tough spot. Streaks like this one also end without warning, which is why the score moves on the matchup and not on the streak.

What kind of hitter he is

Andrés has 13 home runs and 25 extra-base hits in 182 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Andrés hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Andrés has recorded at least one hit in 40 of 69 games he's batted in — 58% — with 7 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Andrés is hitting .319 at home (22-for-69) and .265 on the road (30-for-113) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Andrés's biggest night was Sunday, September 27, 2026 against NYM — 3-for-4 with 2 homers, 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Andrés have graded

In the 8 games where we ranked Andrés a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 6 times — 75%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Andrés was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: rbis graded 81.7/100 while stolen bases came in at 1.5/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Andrés's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, September 27vs NYM43222
Friday, September 25vs NYM31010
Wednesday, September 23@ DET41010
Tuesday, September 22@ DET41000
Sunday, September 20@ STL20000
Saturday, September 19@ STL31000
Wednesday, September 16vs PHI00000
Tuesday, September 15vs PHI32111
Sunday, September 13vs LAA41000
Saturday, September 12vs LAA21001
Friday, September 11vs LAA30000
Wednesday, September 9@ SD40000

Andrés Chaparro — FAQ

Is Andrés Chaparro playing today?

Andrés Chaparro isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Andrés Chaparro graded?

In the 8 games where our model ranked Andrés a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 6 times — 75%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Andrés Chaparro been hitting lately?

Andrés is 11-for-29 (.379) over his last 10 games, against .286 on the season across 182 at-bats in our log, with 13 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Andrés Chaparro appear on?

Andrés was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — rbis, runs, h+r+rbi, fantasy points, walks. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Andrés Chaparro's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).