Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?

Michael Harris II (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 23, 2026: Michael Harris II (100), Angel Genao (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Pete Alonso (98), Steven Kwan (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Angel Genao (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .307 against lefties this year. Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daylen Lile (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Keibert Ruiz (WSH). RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Scores lock at first pitch and are graded against the box score the next morning — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–8

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup82 Final · 3–1

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup98 Final · 4–6

STLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–6

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup88 Final · 7–11

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup66 ● 7–6 · Bot 8

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup74 Final · 1–2

NYMaway

CWShomeTop matchup72 ● 3–5 · Top 9

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 ● 6–2 · Bot 5

CLEaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 ● 3–5 · Top 7

SFaway

BOShomeTop matchup74 ● 1–2 · Top 3

CHCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup86 ● 0–1 · Top 5

MINaway

SDhomeTop matchup96 ● 0–1 · Mid 4

PITaway

LADhomeTop matchup94 ● 3–0 · Bot 3

CINaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 7:10 PM ET

ATLaway

MILhomeTop matchup100

Not starting63 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 333 shownScore

129 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@COL· 3-for-3
3H live
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T1
Henry BolteCF
ATH@HOU· 3-for-5
3H live
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T1
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSF· 3-for-4
3H live
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T1
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsDET· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
5
Steven KwanLF
CLE@COL· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T5
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T5
Jo AdellRF
CLE@COL· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T5
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsATH· 2-for-5
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T5
Jahmai JonesDH
BOSvsSF· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T5
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T5
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T5
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSF· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T5
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T5
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T5
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T5
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T5
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@BOS· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T5
Alec Burleson1B
STL@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T5
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T5
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T5
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T5
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@COL· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T5
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T5
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T5
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T5
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T5
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T5
Gustavo CamperoOF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T5
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T5
Jose SiriCF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T5
Jonah CoxCF
SF@BOS· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T5
Connor WongC
BOSvsSF· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T5
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T5
Brian ServenC
ATH@HOU· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T5
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T5
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T5
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T5
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T5
John RaveRF
KCvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T5
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T5
Myles StrawCF
TOR@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
42
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsMIN· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T42
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsPIT· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T42
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SD· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T42
Yandy DíazDH
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T42
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T42
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCIN· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T42
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@AZ· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T42
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLE@COL· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T42
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@AZ· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T42
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T42
Daylen LileLF
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T42
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsCLE· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T42
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T42
Willi Castro2B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T42
Agustín RamírezC
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T42
Dane MyersCF
CIN@AZ· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #40
T42
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T42
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T42
Keibert RuizC
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T42
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsATH· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T42
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T42
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T42
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T42
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T42
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T42
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T42
Liam HicksC
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T42
Manny Machado3B
SDvsMIN· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T42
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@SD· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T42
Iván HerreraDH
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T42
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T42
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T42
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@HOU· 1-for-5
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T42
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T42
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T42
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DET@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T42
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T42
Victor BericotoLF
SF@BOS· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T42
Willy AdamesSS
SF@BOS· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T42
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T42
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T42
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T42
Connor Norby2B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T42
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T42
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T42
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T42
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T42
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@LAD· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T42
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsCLE· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T42
Austin HedgesC
CLE@COL· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T42
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T42
Tommy White3B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T42
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T42
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T42
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T42
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T42
Deyvison De Los Santos3B
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T42
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@HOU· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T42
Ramón Urías3B
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T42
José FermínLF
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T42
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@LAD· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T42
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T42
Logan O'HoppeC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T42
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T42
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T42
Max ClarkCF
DET@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T42
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T42
Corey JulksLF
DET@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T42
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T42
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T42
Brett SullivanC
COLvsCLE· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T42
Max Muncy3B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T42
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@AZ· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T42
George SpringerDH
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T42
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@AZ· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T42
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T42
Javier BáezSS
DET@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T42
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T42
Elias DíazC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T42
Pedro PagésC
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T42
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@SEA· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #255
T42
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T42
Austin WellsC
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T42
Jared Young1B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T42
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T42
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T42
Joe MackC
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T42
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsSF· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Michael Harris II (ATL) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 board at 100, with Angel Genao (CLE) and Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. The lefty is hitting .264 H/PA against lefties this year — and .235 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Shane Drohan has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shane Drohan. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Angel Genao (CLE) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .263 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hitter's park, hot bat.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (100) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .264 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.256), due to bounce back.
Pete Alonso (BAL) (98) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hot bat.
Steven Kwan (CLE) (98) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .238 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hitter's park.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (96) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a solid bat at .249 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
Ty France (SD) (96) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a strong bat at .255 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (94) vs RHP Lake Bachar: a strong bat at .258 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daylen Lile (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Keibert Ruiz (WSH).
RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

Platoon edges to target

Angel Genao (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .307 against lefties this year.
Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Angel Genao (CLE) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Angel Genao (CLE), Pete Alonso (BAL), Ty France (SD), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Chandler Simpson (TB). Cold but due to bounce back: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), Agustín Ramírez (MIA), and Henry Bolte (ATH).

How it played out

3 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?: Michael Harris II (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 23, 2026: Michael Harris II (100), Angel Genao (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Pete Alonso (98), Steven Kwan (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 23, 2026?: Result pending.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Angel Genao (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .307 against lefties this year. Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Angel Genao (CLE) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daylen Lile (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Keibert Ruiz (WSH). RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Michael Harris II (ATL), Angel Genao (CLE), Pete Alonso (BAL), Ty France (SD), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Chandler Simpson (TB). Cold but due to bounce back: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), Agustín Ramírez (MIA), and Henry Bolte (ATH).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.