Last scored matchup
Carlos isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, at home against Houston Astros on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on rbis (34.6/100), walks (30.8/100), hits (30.6/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
0 starts, 0-0, 10.61 ERA, 2.46 WHIP, 9.1 innings. He's struck out 1 over that span, against 8 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
What his floor looks like
Carlos has made 9 starts this season, averaging 1.0 innings with a 10.61 ERA across them. In the 1 start we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 0 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
A long gap since his last start
Carlos hasn't started in 26 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
Where he lands across our boards
Carlos was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: rbis graded 34.6/100 while runs came in at 5.4/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Carlos's score comes from the matchup, not his reputation. The model weighs how the opposing lineup handles his handedness, how many batters he's likely to face given recent workload, the park, and the weather — then normalizes 0–100 against every other arm on the slate. How those factors are weighted is our own, and it re-tunes weekly against real outcomes. We publish the score and grade it in public; that's the half you can check.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For Carlos specifically, he's coming off a 26-day gap.