MatchWiz

Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez — hitting .233 in our graded log with 16 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
42.5
Doubles · @ WSH · 2026-09-27
Our calls on him · hits
50%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
108
this season, box-score final
Francisco Alvarez
CBats RThrows RNew York Mets
Doubles42.5/100proj 0.2Hits37.5/100proj 0.9RBIs35.8/100proj 0.4Walks35.8/100proj 0.4Singles32.6/100proj 0.5H+R+RBI30.4/100proj 1.5Home Runs29.5/100proj 0.2Total Bases28.5/100proj 1.5Fantasy Points25.4/100proj 5.9Runs15.9/100proj 0.4Triples3.7/100proj 0Stolen Bases3.1/100proj 0

Last scored matchup

Francisco isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, away at Washington Nationals on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on doubles (42.5/100), hits (37.5/100), rbis (35.8/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Francisco is 10-for-38 (.263) over his last 10 games, in line with his .233 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Francisco has 16 home runs and 29 extra-base hits in 361 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Francisco hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Francisco has recorded at least one hit in 65 of 106 games he's batted in — 61% — with 18 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Francisco is hitting .218 at home (38-for-174) and .246 on the road (46-for-187) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Francisco's biggest night was Saturday, September 19, 2026 against PHI — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Francisco a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 2 times so far. He's appeared in 108 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Francisco was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: doubles graded 42.5/100 while stolen bases came in at 3.1/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Francisco gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For Francisco specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, September 26@ WSH30010
Friday, September 25@ WSH30001
Wednesday, September 23@ TEX42000
Tuesday, September 22@ TEX52022
Sunday, September 20vs PHI42010
Saturday, September 19vs PHI42113
Thursday, September 17vs PHI30000
Tuesday, September 15vs BAL50010
Monday, September 14vs BAL41000
Sunday, September 13@ NYY31000
Friday, September 11@ NYY30000
Tuesday, September 8@ MIA41010

Francisco Alvarez — FAQ

Is Francisco Alvarez playing today?

Francisco Alvarez isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How has Francisco Alvarez been hitting lately?

Francisco is 10-for-38 (.263) over his last 10 games, against .233 on the season across 361 at-bats in our log, with 16 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Francisco Alvarez appear on?

Francisco was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — doubles, hits, rbis, walks, singles. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Francisco Alvarez's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).