MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
MLB · C · New York Mets

Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez — the model's read on today's matchup and how our calls on him have graded. Top board today: home runs at 32.6/100.

Today's top board
32.6
Home Runs · @ ATL
Our calls on him · hits
0%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
52
this season, box-score final
Francisco Alvarez
CBats RThrows RNew York Mets
Home Runs32.6/100proj 0.2#78RBIs31.4/100proj 0.4#163Total Bases29.2/100proj 1.5#139Walks28.2/100proj 0.4#105Fantasy Points23.8/100proj 6#152Hits21/100proj 0.9#181H+R+RBI20.3/100proj 1.5#180Runs17.7/100proj 0.4#197Stolen Bases10/100proj 0#178

Today's matchup

Francisco is at Atlanta Braves on the Friday, July 3, 2026 slate. He lands on 9 of our boards — home runs (32.6/100, #78), rbis (31.4/100, #163), total bases (29.2/100, #139), walks (28.2/100, #105). We project Francisco for 0.2 on the home runs board. Tap any board for the full breakdown, and check back for the graded result once the game's final.

Recent form

Over his last 5 games, Francisco is 3-for-20 (.150) with 1 homer. The full log's below.

How the model reads him

Francisco's matchup score blends his own rates with the specific spot — the arm he faces and that pitcher's bullpen, the handedness edge, the park, the weather, and his recent form — normalized 0–100 against the rest of the slate. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly. We publish the score and grade it in the open; the record above is the receipt.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, July 1@ TOR40000
Tuesday, June 30@ TOR41111
Monday, June 29@ TOR31000
Sunday, June 28vs PHI51010
Saturday, June 27vs PHI40000
Friday, June 26vs PHI10000
Thursday, June 25vs CHC40000
Wednesday, June 24vs CHC41111
Wednesday, June 24vs CHC32111
Tuesday, June 23vs CHC42113
Sunday, June 21@ PHI40000
Saturday, June 20@ PHI31000

Francisco Alvarez — FAQ

Who is Francisco Alvarez facing today?

Francisco Alvarez is facing Atlanta Braves on Friday, July 3, 2026. His best matchup grades 32.6/100 on our home runs board.

What's Francisco Alvarez's projection today?

We project Francisco for 0.2 on the home runs board (away vs ATL). Every board he's scored on is listed with its matchup score.

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).