Last scored matchup
Graham isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 8 days ago, away at New York Mets on Friday, July 31, 2026, where he landed on walks (42.9/100), doubles (41.2/100), hits (36/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Recent form
Graham is 5-for-20 (.250) over his last 10 games, in line with his .190 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.
He's a left-handed bat
Graham hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Graham has recorded at least one hit in 14 of 29 games he's batted in — 48% — with 2 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.
Home and away
Graham is hitting .184 at home (7-for-38) and .196 on the road (9-for-46) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.
Against New York Mets
Graham is 3-for-8 (.375) against New York Mets in our log, over 3 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 8 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.
His best game in the log
Graham's biggest night was Thursday, July 30, 2026 at NYM — 2-for-3. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
No graded record on him yet
We haven't ranked Graham a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — not once so far. He's appeared in 33 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.
Where he lands across our boards
Graham was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks graded 42.9/100 while stolen bases came in at 4.7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Graham's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.
What we'd flag
Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Graham specifically, his sample is small (84 at-bats logged), and we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.