MatchWiz

Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: runs at 71.9/100.

Today's top board
71.9
Runs · vs TB
Our calls on him · hits
0%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
76
this season, box-score final
Jackson Holliday
2BBats LThrows RBaltimore Orioles
Runs71.9/100proj 0.5#25Total Bases69.1/100proj 1.7#22Hits56/100proj 1#91H+R+RBI53.4/100proj 1.8#87Fantasy Points52.8/100proj 7.2#47Doubles49.8/100proj 0.2#29Singles39/100proj 0.6#104RBIs33.5/100proj 0.4#142Walks32.3/100proj 0.3#204Stolen Bases19.3/100proj 0.1#38Home Runs18.9/100proj 0.1#159Triples18.3/100proj 0#91

Today's matchup

Today it's Tampa Bay Rays for Jackson, at home. He shows up on 12 boards — runs (71.9/100, #25), total bases (69.1/100, #22), hits (56/100, #91), h+r+rbi (53.4/100, #87). We've got him at 0.5 on the runs board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

He's in a cold stretch

Jackson is 7-for-41 (.171) across his last 10 games, down from .235 on the season. Slumps this size are mostly noise at this sample — 41 at-bats is a fortnight, not a trend — and the model treats it that way, discounting the cold run rather than writing him off. If the matchup underneath is good, he'll still grade well here. That's a feature, and sometimes it's wrong.

He's a left-handed bat

Jackson hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Jackson has recorded at least one hit in 37 of 74 games he's batted in — 50% — with 13 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Jackson is hitting .198 at home (25-for-126) and .279 on the road (29-for-104) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.

Against Tampa Bay Rays

Jackson is 7-for-29 (.241) against Tampa Bay Rays in our log, over 7 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 29 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

Jackson's biggest night was Sunday, August 16, 2026 at TB — 2-for-4 with 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Jackson a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 2 times so far. He's appeared in 76 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Jackson was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: runs graded 71.9/100 while triples came in at 18.3/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Jackson's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Jackson specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, August 23vs TB40000
Saturday, August 22vs TB41010
Friday, August 21vs TB31011
Thursday, August 20vs NYY40000
Wednesday, August 19vs NYY40010
Tuesday, August 18vs NYY40000
Monday, August 17@ TB51010
Sunday, August 16@ TB42023
Saturday, August 15@ TB41000
Friday, August 14@ TB51000
Wednesday, August 12@ MIN40001
Tuesday, August 11@ MIN40000

Jackson Holliday — FAQ

Who is Jackson Holliday facing today?

Jackson Holliday is hosting Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 71.9/100 on our runs board, ranked #25.

What is Jackson Holliday's projection today?

We project Jackson for 0.5 on the runs board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How has Jackson Holliday been hitting lately?

Jackson is 7-for-41 (.171) over his last 10 games, against .235 on the season across 230 at-bats in our log, with 6 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Jackson Holliday appear on?

Jackson was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — runs, total bases, hits, h+r+rbi, fantasy points. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Jackson Holliday's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).