Best MLB walks allowed matchups — Sunday, September 27, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, September 27, 2026 slate — ranked by walk risk against today's lineup. Results show how each call played out.
How the model did — Sunday, September 27, 2026
Our top 5 starts went 3/4 (75%) on our walks over/under, against 57% on the season.
Top call Janson Junk came through. Michael Soroka didn't.
Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →
PROJ2 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitchⓘ
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit our walks over/under, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/475%
season 57%+18 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
5/771%
season 54%+17 pts-5% ROI
Top 20
8/1267%
season building
Top 50
9/1753%
season building
Full slate
9/1753%
season 56%-3 pts-2% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — our walks over/under. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Walks Allowed Matchups — Sunday, September 27, 2026
Jack Dreyer (LAD) leads the Sunday, September 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.7 BB owns today's cleanest command matchup. Janson Junk (MIA) is next at 100. Walks are the most pitcher-controlled number on the board — and the market where a patient lineup quietly changes everything.
Top spot: Jack Dreyer
Jack Dreyer (LAD) projects for the stingiest free-pass line of the slate — about 0.7 BB against SF. Command is the skill, but the lineup sets the test: some clubs chase, some make an arm throw strike three.
The rest of the top of the board
Janson Junk (MIA) (100) — about 1.2 BB vs ATL.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (95) — about 1.2 BB vs SD.
Kyle Freeland (COL) (91) — about 1.3 BB vs CWS.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (88) — about 1.4 BB vs STL.
Seth Johnson (ATH) (87) — about 1.0 BB vs HOU.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 0.9 BB. Jack Dreyer finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
Walks are a two-sided discipline stat
No allowed stat is more in the pitcher's hands than the walk — no defense, no park, no batted-ball luck. But the batter's box matters more than most bettors credit: the spread between the league's most patient lineup and its most chase-happy one is worth a full walk a night to the same arm. The model reads both sides — this pitcher's strike-throwing against this lineup's swing decisions, split by hand. And because walk lines live down at 1.5, a half-walk of projection is an enormous gap: small line, coarse outcomes, price matters more than anywhere else.
How to read the walks allowed board
Every starter is scored 0–100 on tonight's command setup — his walk rate by handedness against how patiently this lineup actually swings. The projection is expected walks for the start; at a 1.5 line a projection near 1.0 or 2.0 is a real lean, and the juice decides whether it's worth anything. Graded against the box score, always.
The Walks Allowed board projects how many free passes a starter issues. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His control.
The lineup's patience.
Count leverage.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Walks are near-unpredictable at the margin and the market prices them efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
A read on a starter's command for the night; no edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Which pitcher has the best walks allowed matchup today (Sunday, September 27, 2026)?
Jack Dreyer (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.7 BB against SF.
What are the best pitcher walks props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, September 27, 2026: Jack Dreyer (~0.7 BB), Janson Junk (~1.2 BB), Michael Soroka (~1.2 BB), Kyle Freeland (~1.3 BB), Jacob Misiorowski (~1.4 BB). The full board ranks every starter.
Why are pitcher walk lines usually 1.5?
The average start produces right around two walks, and books shade the line to 1.5 with juice doing the fine-tuning. That makes the price, not the number, the thing to read — over 1.5 at −160 and at +120 are different bets entirely.
Does the opposing lineup really change a walk prop?
More than any other pitcher prop. Chase-heavy lineups turn borderline pitches into strikes and at-bats into quick outs; patient ones force full counts. The same command profile can project half a walk apart depending on who's standing in.
How is the walks allowed score calculated?
Ranked by walk risk against today's lineup — his command, the lineup's plate discipline, and his workload. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected walks number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best walks spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
