Last scored matchup
Jesús isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 13 days ago, away at Colorado Rockies on Thursday, September 24, 2026, where he landed on rbis (71.9/100), h+r+rbi (62.1/100), doubles (57.3/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Recent form
Jesús is 4-for-24 (.167) over his last 10 games, in line with his .221 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.
He's a left-handed bat
Jesús hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Jesús has recorded at least one hit in 37 of 76 games he's batted in — 49% — with 8 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.
Home and away
Jesús is hitting .239 at home (26-for-109) and .202 on the road (20-for-99) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.
How our calls on Jesús have graded
In the 7 games where we ranked Jesús a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 4 times — 57%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.
Where he lands across our boards
Jesús was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: rbis graded 71.9/100 while stolen bases came in at 9.7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Take the name off Jesús and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.