Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, August 22, 2026
Top total bases spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. The righty is racking up bases at .356 TB/PA against righties this year — and .540 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 41% of his trips. And Dean Kremer has been vulnerable to righties lately — .412 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Dean Kremer too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .446 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.522).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: a solid bat at .415 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.809).
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (97) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .426 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.550), hot bat.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (97) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .390 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (96) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a league-average bat at .356 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (95) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: a solid bat at .390 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.520).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (94) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a solid bat at .410 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.375).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Michael Wacha has been getting squared up by righties — .480 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gleyber Torres (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Kevin McGonigle (DET).
- RHP Brandon Young has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB).
- LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .416 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Eldridge (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Victor Bericoto (SF).
- RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .402 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .449 against righties this year.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .373 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .296 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .385 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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