Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 22, 2026)?

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 22, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 22, 2026: Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Steven Kwan (100), Yandy Díaz (94), Jackson Chourio (94), Alec Burleson (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 22, 2026?

Yes — Fernando Tatis Jr. got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .269 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year. Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .226 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB). RHP Andrew Painter has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, August 22, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 68%

Full slate

158/26959%

season 58%

Top call Fernando Tatis Jr. came through. Steven Kwan didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–3

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup84 Final · 1–4

ATLaway

MILhomeTop matchup94 Final · 2–4

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup81 Final · 3–12

STLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup93 Final · 2–3

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup94 Final · 3–0

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–3

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup70 Final · 10–5

NYMaway

CWShomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–5

CHCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup76 Final · 2–3

SFaway

BOShomeTop matchup73 Final · 1–3

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup82 Final · 3–4

PITaway

LADhomeTop matchup85 Final · 11–5

CINaway

AZhomeTop matchup86 Final · 4–3

CLEaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–7

MINaway

SDhomeTop matchup100

Not starting58 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 327 shownScore

162 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@AZ· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T1
JJ BledayLF
CIN@AZ· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
3
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T3
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsCHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T3
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CWS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T3
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@AZ· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T3
Max Muncy3B
LADvsPIT· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T3
George SpringerDH
TOR@NYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T3
Tommy White3B
ATH@HOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T3
Andrew KniznerC
SF@BOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T3
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@SD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
12
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #1
T12
Yandy DíazDH
TB@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T12
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T12
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T12
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T12
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T12
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T12
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T12
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T12
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T12
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T12
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T12
William ContrerasC
MILvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T12
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T12
Jo AdellRF
CLE@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T12
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T12
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@SD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T12
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T12
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T12
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T12
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T12
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T12
Jared Young1B
NYM@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T12
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@LAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T12
Lars NootbaarLF
AZvsCIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T12
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T12
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T12
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T12
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T12
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T12
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAA@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T12
Willy AdamesSS
SF@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T12
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T12
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T12
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T12
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T12
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T12
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T12
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T12
Leo Rivas3B
SEAvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T12
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T12
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T12
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T12
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T12
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T12
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T12
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T12
Luis LaraRF
MILvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T12
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T12
Héctor RodríguezRF
CIN@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #256
T12
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@NYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
63
Alec Burleson1B
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T63
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T63
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T63
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T63
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T63
Ty France1B
SDvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T63
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T63
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T63
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T63
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T63
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T63
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T63
Angel Genao2B
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T63
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T63
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T63
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T63
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T63
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T63
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T63
José Ramírez3B
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T63
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T63
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T63
Oneil CruzCF
PIT@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T63
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T63
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T63
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T63
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T63
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T63
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T63
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T63
Dillon DinglerC
DET@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T63
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T63
Brett CallahanLF
DET@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T63
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T63
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T63
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T63
Michael Busch1B
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T63
Liam HicksC
TB@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T63
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T63
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T63
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T63
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T63
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T63
Matt Olson1B
ATL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T63
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T63
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T63
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T63
Willi Castro2B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T63
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T63
Gustavo CamperoOF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T63
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T63
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T63
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T63
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T63
Jose FernandezDH
AZvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T63
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T63
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T63
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T63
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T63
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T63
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T63
Joe MackC
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T63
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T63
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T63
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T63
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T63
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T63
Nick Yorke3B
PIT@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T63
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T63
Alek ThomasCF
LADvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T63
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T63
Charles McAdoo2B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T63
José TenaDH
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T63
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T63
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T63
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T63
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T63
Brett Baty3B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T63
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T63
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T63
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T63
Derek HillCF
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T63
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MIN@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T63
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T63
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T63
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T63
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T63
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T63
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T63
Myles StrawCF
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T63
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T63
Max Muncy3B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T63
Matt McLain2B
CIN@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T63
Drew RomoC
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T63
Freddy FerminC
SDvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #264
T63
Austin WellsC
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T63
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T63
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsTB· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T63
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T63
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsTB· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, August 22, 2026 board at 100, with Steven Kwan (CLE) and Yandy Díaz (TB) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. The righty is hitting .248 H/PA against righties this year — and .243 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Dean Kremer has been tough on righties lately — .118 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Dean Kremer too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Steven Kwan (CLE) (100) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381).
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (94) vs LHP Martín Pérez: a strong bat at .264 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.216), hot bat.
Alec Burleson (STL) (93) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .268 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240), hot bat.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) (93) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .243 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Chandler Simpson (TB) (92) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
Luke Keaschall (MIN) (89) vs RHP Casey Mize: a solid bat at .241 into an arm tough on the same side (.133).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
RHP Andrew Painter has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).

Platoon edges to target

Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .269 against lefties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .226 against righties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Steven Kwan (CLE) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Alec Burleson (STL), Chandler Simpson (TB), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Luis Arraez (PHI), and Colt Keith (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Byron Buxton (MIN), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Victor Bericoto (SF), and Griffin Conine (MIA).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 22, 2026)?: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 22, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 22, 2026: Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Steven Kwan (100), Yandy Díaz (94), Jackson Chourio (94), Alec Burleson (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 22, 2026?: Yes — Fernando Tatis Jr. got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .269 against lefties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year. Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .226 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Steven Kwan (CLE) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB). RHP Andrew Painter has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Alec Burleson (STL), Chandler Simpson (TB), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Luis Arraez (PHI), and Colt Keith (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Byron Buxton (MIN), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Victor Bericoto (SF), and Griffin Conine (MIA).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.