MatchWiz

Joshua Báez

Joshua Báez — hitting .214 in our graded log with 7 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
46.1
Doubles · vs WSH · 2026-09-18
Our calls on him · hits
67%
1+ hit in 4/6 top-20 calls
Games graded
28
this season, box-score final
Joshua Báez
LFBats RThrows RSt. Louis Cardinals
Doubles46.1/100proj 0.2RBIs42.8/100proj 0.5Hits40/100proj 0.9H+R+RBI39/100proj 1.6Singles36.4/100proj 0.6Runs33/100proj 0.5Total Bases32.3/100proj 1.5Home Runs30.8/100proj 0.2Fantasy Points30/100proj 6.3Walks21.3/100proj 0.3Stolen Bases16.4/100proj 0.1Triples3.7/100proj 0

Not on the current slate

Joshua hasn't been scored in 20 days — his last matchup was against Washington Nationals on Friday, September 18, 2026. A gap that long usually means an injury, a minor-league option, or a roster move rather than a rest day. Everything below is his most recent real production, not a projection.

Recent form

Joshua is 10-for-38 (.263) over his last 10 games, in line with his .214 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Joshua strikes out a lot — 33 strikeouts in 98 at-bats, roughly 34%. That cuts both ways in the WizLine. It drags his floor on the hits board, since he needs contact to get there. But it barely dents the power boards, where one swing settles it — he's got 7 homers. Against a high-strikeout arm his score will fall further than a contact hitter's would.

He's a right-handed bat

Joshua hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Joshua has recorded at least one hit in 15 of 28 games he's batted in — 54% — with 4 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Joshua is hitting .206 at home (7-for-34) and .219 on the road (14-for-64) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Joshua's biggest night was Saturday, September 5, 2026 at COL — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Joshua have graded

In the 6 games where we ranked Joshua a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 4 times — 67%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Joshua was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: doubles graded 46.1/100 while triples came in at 3.7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Joshua's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Joshua specifically, his sample is small (98 at-bats logged).

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, September 16vs SF40000
Monday, September 14vs SF40000
Saturday, September 12vs CWS40000
Friday, September 11vs CWS43022
Wednesday, September 9@ SF41010
Tuesday, September 8@ SF20000
Monday, September 7@ SF51010
Sunday, September 6@ COL32011
Saturday, September 5@ COL42121
Friday, September 4@ COL41010
Thursday, September 3@ LAD31001
Tuesday, September 1@ LAD31121

Joshua Báez — FAQ

Is Joshua Báez playing today?

Joshua Báez isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Friday, September 18, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Joshua Báez graded?

In the 6 games where our model ranked Joshua a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 4 times — 67%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Joshua Báez been hitting lately?

Joshua is 10-for-38 (.263) over his last 10 games, against .214 on the season across 98 at-bats in our log, with 7 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Joshua Báez appear on?

Joshua was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — doubles, rbis, hits, h+r+rbi, singles. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Joshua Báez's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).