Last scored matchup
Luke isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, at home against Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on doubles (39.1/100), singles (24.9/100), hits (21.4/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
0 starts, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 1.0 innings. He's struck out 0 over that span, against 0 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws right-handed
Luke throws right-handed, which is the ordinary case and means fewer wild swings in the lineup he faces. Opposing managers aren't restacking against him the way they would a left-hander, so his projection moves more on the quality of the lineup than on its handedness. What does move it: how deep he's been going lately, and whether the lineup in front of him strikes out.
Against Cleveland Guardians
Luke has faced Cleveland Guardians 1 time in our log — 0 strikeouts over 1.0 innings. Head-to-head history is the input people weight most and the model weights least: a handful of starts against one club tells you less than the same club's current strikeout rate against his handedness, which is what actually feeds the projection.
A long gap since his last start
Luke hasn't started in 39 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
Where he lands across our boards
Luke was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: doubles graded 39.1/100 while stolen bases came in at 4.7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
The number on Luke is about tonight, not about him. Strip out the name and the model is asking one question: what does this specific lineup do to this kind of arm, in this park, for as many batters as he's likely to face? That gets scored against every other starter on the slate. The combination math is proprietary and re-tuned every week. The grading isn't — it's all public, including the misses.
What we'd flag
Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Luke specifically, he's coming off a 39-day gap.