MatchWiz

Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: hits at 86.3/100.

Today's top board
86.3
Hits · @ LAD
Our calls on him · hits
64%
1+ hit in 16/25 top-20 calls
Games graded
117
this season, box-score final
Nick Gonzales
3BBats RThrows RPittsburgh Pirates
Hits86.3/100proj 1.1#11Singles75.2/100proj 0.7#8H+R+RBI64.2/100proj 1.8#32Runs56.5/100proj 0.5#38Walks52.3/100proj 0.4#29Doubles49.4/100proj 0.2#26Total Bases39.9/100proj 1.5#62Fantasy Points36.9/100proj 6.4#52RBIs35.9/100proj 0.4#55Stolen Bases16.7/100proj 0.1#49Home Runs8.4/100proj 0.1#73Triples6.6/100proj 0#63

Today's matchup

Today it's Los Angeles Dodgers for Nick, away. He shows up on 12 boards — hits (86.3/100, #11), singles (75.2/100, #8), h+r+rbi (64.2/100, #32), runs (56.5/100, #38). We've got him at 1.1 on the hits board. That's one of the stronger spots on the board today. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Nick is 10-for-35 (.286) over his last 10 games, in line with his .311 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Nick puts the ball in play — 82 strikeouts in 447 at-bats, about 18% of the time. Contact hitters carry their value on the hits board rather than the power boards, and they're less matchup-dependent than sluggers: a strikeout arm hurts him less than it hurts a hitter who sells out for damage. He's also run — 5 stolen bases — which shows up on the steals board.

He's a right-handed bat

Nick hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Nick has recorded at least one hit in 80 of 116 games he's batted in — 69% — with 49 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Nick is hitting .294 at home (60-for-204) and .325 on the road (79-for-243) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Nick's biggest night was Friday, August 21, 2026 at LAD — 2-for-5 with 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Nick have graded

We've ranked Nick a top-20 hitter matchup 25 times this season. He got a hit in 16 of them — 64%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Nick was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits graded 86.3/100 while triples came in at 6.6/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Nick's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22@ LAD40000
Friday, August 21@ LAD52002
Wednesday, August 19vs DET32000
Monday, August 17vs DET21010
Friday, August 14vs BOS20000
Thursday, August 13@ MIA42010
Wednesday, August 12@ MIA32020
Tuesday, August 11@ MIA30000
Sunday, August 9vs NYM40000
Saturday, August 8vs NYM51003
Friday, August 7vs NYM42010
Thursday, August 6@ MIL32000

Nick Gonzales — FAQ

Who is Nick Gonzales facing today?

Nick Gonzales is facing Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 86.3/100 on our hits board, ranked #11.

What is Nick Gonzales's projection today?

We project Nick for 1.1 on the hits board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Nick Gonzales graded?

In the 25 games where our model ranked Nick a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 16 times — 64%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Nick Gonzales been hitting lately?

Nick is 10-for-35 (.286) over his last 10 games, against .311 on the season across 447 at-bats in our log, with 6 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Nick Gonzales appear on?

Nick was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — hits, singles, h+r+rbi, runs, walks. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Nick Gonzales's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).