MatchWiz

Nick Sogard

Nick Sogard — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: hits at 67.5/100.

Today's top board
67.5
Hits · vs SF
Our calls on him · hits
50%
1+ hit in 3/6 top-20 calls
Games graded
32
this season, box-score final
Nick Sogard
2BBats SThrows RBoston Red Sox
Hits67.5/100proj 1.1#27Doubles60.9/100proj 0.3#5H+R+RBI58.4/100proj 1.7#55Singles52.8/100proj 0.6#50Total Bases46/100proj 1.5#67Runs43.5/100proj 0.5#65Fantasy Points30.4/100proj 6.1#89RBIs29.4/100proj 0.4#82Walks28.6/100proj 0.3#95Triples10.6/100proj 0#72Home Runs10/100proj 0.1#101Stolen Bases5.4/100proj 0#109

Today's matchup

Nick is hosting San Francisco Giants on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — hits (67.5/100, #27), doubles (60.9/100, #5), h+r+rbi (58.4/100, #55), singles (52.8/100, #50). We've got him at 1.1 on the hits board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Nick is 12-for-38 (.316) over his last 10 games, in line with his .289 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

He bats from both sides

Nick is a switch-hitter, which changes how the model reads every one of his matchups. Most hitters carry a real platoon penalty — a lefty bat facing a good lefty arm is a materially worse spot, and the score drops accordingly. Nick takes the favourable side almost every night, so he doesn't collect that penalty. What moves his number instead is the quality of the arm rather than its handedness, and how the two sides of his own swing actually compare, which is rarely as balanced as the switch-hitter label suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Nick has recorded at least one hit in 23 of 31 games he's batted in — 74% — with 9 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Nick is hitting .350 at home (21-for-60) and .222 on the road (12-for-54) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.

His best game in the log

Nick's biggest night was Wednesday, August 19, 2026 against AZ — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Nick have graded

In the 6 games where we ranked Nick a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 3 times — 50%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Nick was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits graded 67.5/100 while stolen bases came in at 5.4/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Nick and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22vs SF32001
Friday, August 21vs SF41020
Wednesday, August 19vs AZ42111
Tuesday, August 18vs AZ32020
Monday, August 17vs AZ52011
Sunday, August 16@ PIT40000
Saturday, August 15@ PIT30000
Friday, August 14@ PIT42002
Thursday, August 13@ TOR40010
Wednesday, August 12@ TOR41000
Tuesday, August 11@ TOR21000
Monday, August 10@ TOR41000

Nick Sogard — FAQ

Who is Nick Sogard facing today?

Nick Sogard is hosting San Francisco Giants on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 67.5/100 on our hits board, ranked #27.

What is Nick Sogard's projection today?

We project Nick for 1.1 on the hits board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Nick Sogard graded?

In the 6 games where our model ranked Nick a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 3 times — 50%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Nick Sogard been hitting lately?

Nick is 12-for-38 (.316) over his last 10 games, against .289 on the season across 114 at-bats in our log, with 1 home run. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Nick Sogard appear on?

Nick was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — hits, doubles, h+r+rbi, singles, total bases. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Nick Sogard's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).