Last scored matchup
Nolan isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 10 days ago, away at San Diego Padres on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on singles (60.2/100), hits (47.3/100), total bases (42.3/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
He's swinging a hot bat
Nolan is 17-for-39 (.436) over his last 10 games — well clear of his .255 season mark. He's hit safely in 12 straight. Our model does lean on recent form, but it weights it against the matchup rather than chasing it: a hot bat facing a tough arm in a bad park still grades as a tough spot. Streaks like this one also end without warning, which is why the score moves on the matchup and not on the streak.
What kind of hitter he is
Nolan has 29 home runs and 55 extra-base hits in 510 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.
He's a right-handed bat
Nolan hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.
Floor and ceiling
Nolan has recorded at least one hit in 92 of 142 games he's batted in — 65% — with 32 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.
Home and away
Nolan is hitting .270 at home (68-for-252) and .240 on the road (62-for-258) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.
Against San Diego Padres
Nolan is 3-for-9 (.333) against San Diego Padres in our log, over 3 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 9 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.
His best game in the log
Nolan's biggest night was Thursday, September 24, 2026 at COL — 3-for-5 with 1 homer, 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
How our calls on Nolan have graded
In the 7 games where we ranked Nolan a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 4 times — 57%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.
Where he lands across our boards
Nolan was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 60.2/100 while triples came in at 5.4/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Take the name off Nolan and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.