MatchWiz

Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: total bases at 56.1/100.

Today's top board
56.1
Total Bases · @ COL
Our calls on him · hits
0%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
77
this season, box-score final
Patrick Bailey
CBats SThrows RCleveland Guardians
Total Bases56.1/100proj 1.6Runs45.4/100proj 0.5H+R+RBI42.3/100proj 1.6Hits36.5/100proj 0.9Fantasy Points33.7/100proj 6.3RBIs33.5/100proj 0.4Triples32.9/100proj 0Walks23.4/100proj 0.3Singles22.6/100proj 0.5Doubles18.5/100proj 0.2Home Runs13/100proj 0.1Stolen Bases12.7/100proj 0

Today's matchup

Patrick is on the road against Colorado Rockies on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — total bases (56.1/100), runs (45.4/100), h+r+rbi (42.3/100), hits (36.5/100). We've got him at 1.6 on the total bases board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Patrick is 6-for-29 (.207) over his last 10 games, in line with his .208 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

He bats from both sides

Patrick is a switch-hitter, which changes how the model reads every one of his matchups. Most hitters carry a real platoon penalty — a lefty bat facing a good lefty arm is a materially worse spot, and the score drops accordingly. Patrick takes the favourable side almost every night, so he doesn't collect that penalty. What moves his number instead is the quality of the arm rather than its handedness, and how the two sides of his own swing actually compare, which is rarely as balanced as the switch-hitter label suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Patrick has recorded at least one hit in 35 of 70 games he's batted in — 50% — with 8 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Patrick is hitting .231 at home (28-for-121) and .180 on the road (18-for-100) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Patrick's biggest night was Friday, August 21, 2026 at COL — 2-for-5 with 1 homer, 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Patrick a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 1 time so far. He's appeared in 77 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Patrick was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: total bases graded 56.1/100 while stolen bases came in at 12.7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Patrick and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Patrick specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22@ COL31001
Friday, August 21@ COL52113
Thursday, August 20vs SF32011
Wednesday, August 19vs SF10000
Tuesday, August 18vs SF40001
Saturday, August 15vs SD41001
Friday, August 14vs SD40000
Thursday, August 13@ 00000
Tuesday, August 11@ DET30000
Sunday, August 9@ CWS20000
Saturday, August 8@ 20000
Thursday, August 6vs NYM40000

Patrick Bailey — FAQ

Who is Patrick Bailey facing today?

Patrick Bailey is facing Colorado Rockies on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 56.1/100 on our total bases board.

What is Patrick Bailey's projection today?

We project Patrick for 1.6 on the total bases board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How has Patrick Bailey been hitting lately?

Patrick is 6-for-29 (.207) over his last 10 games, against .208 on the season across 221 at-bats in our log, with 7 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Patrick Bailey appear on?

Patrick was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — total bases, runs, h+r+rbi, hits, fantasy points. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Patrick Bailey's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).