MatchWiz

Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey — hitting .211 in our graded log with 6 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
36.7
Runs · @ CWS · 2026-08-07
Our calls on him · hits
0%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
66
this season, box-score final
Patrick Bailey
CBats SThrows RCleveland Guardians
Runs36.7/100proj 0.5RBIs32.8/100proj 0.5H+R+RBI32.4/100proj 1.6Singles32.4/100proj 0.6Walks31.3/100proj 0.3Hits26.7/100proj 0.9Total Bases22.5/100proj 1.4Fantasy Points18/100proj 5.7Triples16.9/100proj 0Doubles16.7/100proj 0.1Home Runs10.1/100proj 0.1Stolen Bases1.9/100proj 0

Last scored matchup

Patrick isn't on today's slate. He was last scored yesterday, away at Chicago White Sox on Friday, August 7, 2026, where he landed on runs (36.7/100), rbis (32.8/100), h+r+rbi (32.4/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Patrick is 5-for-29 (.172) over his last 10 games, in line with his .211 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

He bats from both sides

Patrick is a switch-hitter, which changes how the model reads every one of his matchups. Most hitters carry a real platoon penalty — a lefty bat facing a good lefty arm is a materially worse spot, and the score drops accordingly. Patrick takes the favourable side almost every night, so he doesn't collect that penalty. What moves his number instead is the quality of the arm rather than its handedness, and how the two sides of his own swing actually compare, which is rarely as balanced as the switch-hitter label suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Patrick has recorded at least one hit in 31 of 60 games he's batted in — 52% — with 6 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Patrick is hitting .238 at home (25-for-105) and .176 on the road (15-for-85) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.

His best game in the log

Patrick's biggest night was Monday, July 20, 2026 against MIN — 4-for-5 with 1 homer, 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Patrick a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 1 time so far. He's appeared in 66 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Patrick was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: runs graded 36.7/100 while stolen bases came in at 1.9/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Patrick and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Patrick specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Thursday, August 6vs NYM40000
Wednesday, August 5vs NYM52001
Sunday, August 2vs AZ31111
Saturday, August 1@ 00001
Wednesday, July 29@ CIN30001
Tuesday, July 28@ 10000
Tuesday, July 28@ CIN40000
Saturday, July 25@ TB20000
Thursday, July 23vs MIN41111
Wednesday, July 22vs MIN31011
Monday, July 20vs MIN54122
Sunday, July 19vs PIT30000

Patrick Bailey — FAQ

Is Patrick Bailey playing today?

Patrick Bailey isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Friday, August 7, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How has Patrick Bailey been hitting lately?

Patrick is 5-for-29 (.172) over his last 10 games, against .211 on the season across 190 at-bats in our log, with 6 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Patrick Bailey appear on?

Patrick was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — runs, rbis, h+r+rbi, singles, walks. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Patrick Bailey's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).