Last scored matchup
Pavin isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 11 days ago, away at San Diego Padres on Sunday, September 27, 2026, where he landed on walks (44.6/100), rbis (44.5/100), singles (44.3/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
He's swinging a hot bat
Pavin is 7-for-26 (.269) over his last 10 games — well clear of his .175 season mark. Our model does lean on recent form, but it weights it against the matchup rather than chasing it: a hot bat facing a tough arm in a bad park still grades as a tough spot. Streaks like this one also end without warning, which is why the score moves on the matchup and not on the streak.
He's a left-handed bat
Pavin hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.
Floor and ceiling
Pavin has recorded at least one hit in 14 of 35 games he's batted in — 40% — with 4 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.
Home and away
Pavin is hitting .240 at home (12-for-50) and .113 on the road (6-for-53) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.
Against San Diego Padres
Pavin is 1-for-9 (.111) against San Diego Padres in our log, over 3 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 9 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.
His best game in the log
Pavin's biggest night was Wednesday, September 16, 2026 against MIA — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.
No graded record on him yet
We haven't ranked Pavin a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 3 times so far. He's appeared in 36 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.
Where he lands across our boards
Pavin was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks graded 44.6/100 while triples came in at 13/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Pavin gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For Pavin specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.