Today's matchup
Rafael is at Kansas City Royals on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate. He lands on 9 of our boards — runs (68.7/100, #24), total bases (64.5/100, #39), rbis (61.1/100, #35), h+r+rbi (59.5/100, #40). We project Rafael for 0.6 on the runs board. Tap any board for the full breakdown, and check back for the graded result once the game's final.
Recent form
Over his last 5 games, Rafael is 2-for-20 (.100) with 1 homer. The full log's below.
How our calls on Rafael have done
When we've ranked Rafael a top-20 hitter matchup this season, he's recorded a hit in 18 of 23 games (78%). That's the honest number — graded against the real box score, hits and misses both.
How the model reads him
Rafael's matchup score blends his own rates with the specific spot — the arm he faces and that pitcher's bullpen, the handedness edge, the park, the weather, and his recent form — normalized 0–100 against the rest of the slate. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly. We publish the score and grade it in the open; the record above is the receipt.