Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, September 13, 2026
Top walks spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is working counts at .201 BB/PA against righties this year — and .261 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .135 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Grayson Rodriguez. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Max Muncy (LAD) (98) vs RHP Eury Pérez: a strong bat at .119 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.097), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (96) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.035).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (93) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (91) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (87) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .109 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Dylan Beavers (BAL) (83) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a solid bat at .096 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) (82) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .099 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.067).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .130 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play James Wood finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays