MatchWiz

Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: walks at 87.8/100.

Today's top board
87.8
Walks · vs TOR
Our calls on him · hits
57%
1+ hit in 4/7 top-20 calls
Games graded
107
this season, box-score final
Trent Grisham
CFBats LThrows LNew York Yankees
Walks87.8/100proj 0.5#3Runs71/100proj 0.5#28RBIs61.3/100proj 0.5#32Total Bases60.9/100proj 1.7#58H+R+RBI60/100proj 1.8#55Fantasy Points56.7/100proj 7.4#26Hits51.6/100proj 1#112Home Runs48.1/100proj 0.3#19Singles38.9/100proj 0.6#105Doubles20/100proj 0.2#209Stolen Bases11.6/100proj 0.1#89Triples8.9/100proj 0#186

Today's matchup

Today it's Toronto Blue Jays for Trent, at home. He shows up on 12 boards — walks (87.8/100, #3), runs (71/100, #28), rbis (61.3/100, #32), total bases (60.9/100, #58). We've got him at 0.5 on the walks board. That's one of the stronger spots on the board today. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Trent is 8-for-37 (.216) over his last 10 games, in line with his .215 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Trent has 18 home runs and 38 extra-base hits in 377 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Trent hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Trent has recorded at least one hit in 53 of 104 games he's batted in — 51% — with 23 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Trent is hitting .254 at home (43-for-169) and .183 on the road (38-for-208) across the season. That's a real-looking split, and it's the kind of thing that's usually part park and part noise. The model doesn't apply a blanket home-road adjustment — it prices the actual ballpark he's standing in, which is the part that carries signal.

Against Toronto Blue Jays

Trent is 3-for-21 (.143) against Toronto Blue Jays in our log, over 6 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 21 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

Trent's biggest night was Wednesday, August 12, 2026 against SEA — 3-for-5 with 2 homers, 4 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Trent have graded

In the 7 games where we ranked Trent a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 4 times — 57%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Trent was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks graded 87.8/100 while triples came in at 8.9/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Trent's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, August 23vs TOR41112
Saturday, August 22vs TOR40000
Friday, August 21vs TOR20010
Thursday, August 20@ BAL41000
Wednesday, August 19@ BAL41000
Tuesday, August 18@ BAL42113
Sunday, August 16@ TOR40000
Saturday, August 15@ TOR30000
Friday, August 14@ TOR42111
Thursday, August 13vs SEA41000
Wednesday, August 12vs SEA53234
Tuesday, August 11vs SEA42002

Trent Grisham — FAQ

Who is Trent Grisham facing today?

Trent Grisham is hosting Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 87.8/100 on our walks board, ranked #3.

What is Trent Grisham's projection today?

We project Trent for 0.5 on the walks board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Trent Grisham graded?

In the 7 games where our model ranked Trent a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 4 times — 57%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Trent Grisham been hitting lately?

Trent is 8-for-37 (.216) over his last 10 games, against .215 on the season across 377 at-bats in our log, with 18 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Trent Grisham appear on?

Trent was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — walks, runs, rbis, total bases, h+r+rbi. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Trent Grisham's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).