MatchWiz

Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: singles at 40.6/100.

Today's top board
40.6
Singles · @ SD
Our calls on him · hits
61%
1+ hit in 20/33 top-20 calls
Games graded
78
this season, box-score final
Trevor Larnach
LFBats LThrows RMinnesota Twins
Singles40.6/100proj 0.6Hits36.2/100proj 0.9Walks35.4/100proj 0.3RBIs29.1/100proj 0.4H+R+RBI27.4/100proj 1.5Runs19.4/100proj 0.4Total Bases18.5/100proj 1.3Triples17.9/100proj 0Doubles16.8/100proj 0.1Fantasy Points14.9/100proj 5.5Home Runs13/100proj 0.1Stolen Bases6.1/100proj 0

Today's matchup

Today it's San Diego Padres for Trevor, away. He shows up on 12 boards — singles (40.6/100), hits (36.2/100), walks (35.4/100), rbis (29.1/100). We've got him at 0.6 on the singles board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

He's in a cold stretch

Trevor is 4-for-36 (.111) across his last 10 games, down from .239 on the season. Slumps this size are mostly noise at this sample — 36 at-bats is a fortnight, not a trend — and the model treats it that way, discounting the cold run rather than writing him off. If the matchup underneath is good, he'll still grade well here. That's a feature, and sometimes it's wrong.

What kind of hitter he is

Trevor has 9 home runs and 22 extra-base hits in 268 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Trevor hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Trevor has recorded at least one hit in 41 of 77 games he's batted in — 53% — with 18 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Trevor is hitting .214 at home (25-for-117) and .258 on the road (39-for-151) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Trevor's biggest night was Thursday, August 13, 2026 against PHI — 2-for-5. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Trevor have graded

We've ranked Trevor a top-20 hitter matchup 33 times this season. He got a hit in 20 of them — 61%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Trevor was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 40.6/100 while stolen bases came in at 6.1/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Trevor's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22@ SD40000
Friday, August 21@ SD30000
Wednesday, August 19vs ATL30000
Tuesday, August 18vs ATL30000
Sunday, August 16vs PHI31000
Thursday, August 13vs PHI52000
Wednesday, August 12vs BAL51011
Tuesday, August 11vs BAL50000
Sunday, August 9@ MIL30000
Saturday, August 8@ 20000
Thursday, August 6@ KC31000
Wednesday, August 5@ KC30000

Trevor Larnach — FAQ

Who is Trevor Larnach facing today?

Trevor Larnach is facing San Diego Padres on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 40.6/100 on our singles board.

What is Trevor Larnach's projection today?

We project Trevor for 0.6 on the singles board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Trevor Larnach graded?

In the 33 games where our model ranked Trevor a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 20 times — 61%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Trevor Larnach been hitting lately?

Trevor is 4-for-36 (.111) over his last 10 games, against .239 on the season across 268 at-bats in our log, with 9 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Trevor Larnach appear on?

Trevor was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, hits, walks, rbis, h+r+rbi. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Trevor Larnach's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).