MatchWiz

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: walks at 70.1/100.

Today's top board
70.1
Walks · @ NYY
Our calls on him · hits
61%
1+ hit in 17/28 top-20 calls
Games graded
114
this season, box-score final
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1BBats RThrows RToronto Blue Jays
Walks70.1/100proj 0.4#22Hits66.9/100proj 1.1#47H+R+RBI57.1/100proj 1.8#70Runs56.2/100proj 0.5#93Singles55.5/100proj 0.7#20Total Bases49.5/100proj 1.6#109RBIs40.9/100proj 0.5#112Fantasy Points40.6/100proj 6.7#104Doubles33.4/100proj 0.2#108Home Runs26/100proj 0.2#105Triples5.7/100proj 0#225Stolen Bases5.2/100proj 0#161

Today's matchup

Vladimir is on the road against New York Yankees on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — walks (70.1/100, #22), hits (66.9/100, #47), h+r+rbi (57.1/100, #70), runs (56.2/100, #93). We've got him at 0.4 on the walks board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Vladimir is 11-for-41 (.268) over his last 10 games, in line with his .262 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Vladimir puts the ball in play — 64 strikeouts in 431 at-bats, about 15% of the time. Contact hitters carry their value on the hits board rather than the power boards, and they're less matchup-dependent than sluggers: a strikeout arm hurts him less than it hurts a hitter who sells out for damage. He's also run — 7 stolen bases — which shows up on the steals board.

He's a right-handed bat

Vladimir hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Vladimir has recorded at least one hit in 73 of 114 games he's batted in — 64% — with 31 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Vladimir is hitting .257 at home (54-for-210) and .267 on the road (59-for-221) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against New York Yankees

Vladimir is 3-for-12 (.250) against New York Yankees in our log, over 3 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 12 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

Vladimir's biggest night was Saturday, August 8, 2026 at PHI — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Vladimir have graded

We've ranked Vladimir a top-20 hitter matchup 28 times this season. He got a hit in 17 of them — 61%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Vladimir was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: walks graded 70.1/100 while stolen bases came in at 5.2/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Vladimir and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, August 23@ NYY40000
Saturday, August 22@ NYY52010
Friday, August 14vs NYY31010
Thursday, August 13vs BOS41000
Wednesday, August 12vs BOS52010
Tuesday, August 11vs BOS41000
Monday, August 10vs BOS41000
Sunday, August 9@ PHI51010
Saturday, August 8@ PHI42122
Tuesday, August 4@ HOU30000
Monday, August 3@ HOU40000
Sunday, August 2vs STL40000

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — FAQ

Who is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. facing today?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is facing New York Yankees on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 70.1/100 on our walks board, ranked #22.

What is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s projection today?

We project Vladimir for 0.4 on the walks board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. graded?

In the 28 games where our model ranked Vladimir a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 17 times — 61%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. been hitting lately?

Vladimir is 11-for-41 (.268) over his last 10 games, against .262 on the season across 431 at-bats in our log, with 7 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Vladimir Guerrero Jr. appear on?

Vladimir was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — walks, hits, h+r+rbi, runs, singles. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).