Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top rbis spot: Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is driving in runs at .183 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .262 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 17% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .167 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Merrill Kelly, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- Willson Contreras (BOS) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Manny Machado (SD) (92) vs RHP Grant Holmes: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.273).
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (90) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.292).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (85) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs LHP Foster Griffin: an elite bat at .165 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (83) vs RHP Brady Singer: an elite bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
Platoon edges to target
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
- Donovan Walton (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willson Contreras (BOS) at 100.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays