Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top runs spot: Taylor Ward
Taylor Ward (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The righty is scoring at .135 R/PA against righties this year — and .145 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (98) vs RHP Kodai Senga: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.056).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (89) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (88) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (88) vs LHP PJ Poulin: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .176 against lefties this year.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .173 against lefties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 86.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Taylor Ward finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.