Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
Top runs spot: Taylor Ward
Taylor Ward (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The righty is scoring at .135 R/PA against righties this year — and .145 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (98) vs RHP Kodai Senga: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.056).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (89) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (88) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (88) vs LHP PJ Poulin: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .176 against lefties this year.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .173 against lefties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 86.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Taylor Ward finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays