Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Connor Prielipp. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Friday, August 21, 2026: Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Steven Kwan (100), Chase DeLauter (90), José Ramírez (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, August 21, 2026?

Yes — Fernando Tatis Jr. got 1 run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .177 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year. Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year. Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year. José Ramírez (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Friday, August 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, August 21, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, August 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ run, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 48%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 48%

Full slate

93/27034%

season 37%

Top call Fernando Tatis Jr. came through. Chase DeLauter didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–2

ATLaway

MILhomeTop matchup51 Final · 6–7

STLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–3

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup66 Final · 4–6

SFaway

BOShomeTop matchup64 Final · 2–3

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup83 Final · 3–5

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup82 Final · 4–6

NYMaway

CWShomeTop matchup82 Final · 2–5

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup64 Final · 0–4

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup79 Final · 1–2

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup63 Final · 9–1

CLEaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–6

MINaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–9

CINaway

AZhomeTop matchup69 Final · 4–5

PITaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

CHCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup76

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 335 shownScore

98 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLE@COL· 2-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #26
2
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #2
T2
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCIN· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #33
T2
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@SEA· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #63
T2
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T2
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@COL· 4-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T2
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@LAD· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T2
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@PHI· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #105
T2
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsCIN· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T2
Jordan LawlarLF
AZvsCIN· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T2
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #196
T2
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #199
T2
Christian Koss3B
SF@BOS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #266
T2
Alec Burleson1B
STL@PHI· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
15
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsMIN· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T15
Steven KwanLF
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #3
T15
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsATH· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #9
T15
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #11
T15
Manny Machado3B
SDvsMIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #15
T15
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #16
T15
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #18
T15
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsMIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #20
T15
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #21
T15
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #22
T15
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsCLE· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #23
T15
Max Muncy3B
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #24
T15
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #29
T15
Angel Genao2B
CLE@COL· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #32
T15
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #39
T15
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsNYM· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T15
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@SD· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #47
T15
Ty France1B
SDvsMIN· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T15
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #55
T15
Carter JensenC
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #57
T15
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsSTL· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #58
T15
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #59
T15
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsCIN· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #62
T15
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #70
T15
Rafael Devers1B
SF@BOS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #72
T15
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #74
T15
Austin HaysLF
SDvsMIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #77
T15
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #80
T15
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@MIL· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #81
T15
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsSTL· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #82
T15
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsATL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #83
T15
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T15
Drew GilbertCF
SF@BOS· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #85
T15
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsSF· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #91
T15
Taylor WardDH
SEAvsCHC· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #92
T15
Jorge MateoSS
TB@BAL· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #102
T15
Josh BellDH
MIN@SD· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #108
T15
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #110
T15
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #111
T15
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #112
T15
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@COL· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #115
T15
Iván HerreraDH
STL@PHI· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #117
T15
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsMIN· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #118
T15
Ian HappLF
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #119
T15
Michael Busch1B
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #125
T15
Kenny PiperC
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #127
T15
Jared Young1B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #130
T15
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsCIN· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #140
T15
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@MIA· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #141
T15
Jose SiriCF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #143
T15
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #144
T15
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@LAD· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #145
T15
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #149
T15
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsSTL· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #151
T15
Raynel Delgado2B
HOUvsATH· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #152
T15
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #153
T15
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@NYY· 3-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #155
T15
Jose FernandezDH
AZvsCIN· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #164
T15
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #167
T15
Max ClarkCF
DET@KC· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #168
T15
Jake RogersC
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #170
T15
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #173
T15
Joshua BáezLF
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #175
T15
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #182
T15
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsATH· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #183
T15
Agustín RamírezC
MIAvsWSH· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #184
T15
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsTB· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #187
T15
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsPIT· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #188
T15
Oneil CruzCF
PIT@LAD· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #189
T15
Adley RutschmanC
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #190
T15
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #192
T15
Keibert RuizC
WSH@MIA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #198
T15
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsSTL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #201
T15
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsTOR· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #205
T15
Brock RoddenSS
SEAvsCHC· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #219
T15
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #235
T15
Michael Massey2B
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #238
T15
Cole Young2B
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #243
T15
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #260
T15
Luis LaraRF
MILvsATL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #264
T15
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsNYM
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T15
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@KC· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T15
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsWSH· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R
T15
Enrique Hernández1B
LADvsPIT· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, August 21, 2026

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) is the top runs matchup on the Friday, August 21, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Steven Kwan (CLE) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Connor Prielipp. The righty is scoring at .177 R/PA against lefties this year — and .421 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Connor Prielipp has been getting lit up by lefties lately — .185 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Connor Prielipp. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043).
Steven Kwan (CLE) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .126 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118).
Chase DeLauter (CLE) (90) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .119 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118).
José Ramírez (CLE) (87) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .123 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118).
Andrés Chaparro (WSH) (83) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.261).
Yandy Díaz (TB) (82) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a strong bat at .134 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103), hot bat.
Chase Meidroth (CWS) (82) vs LHP Sean Manaea: a strong bat at .133 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.116).

Platoon edges to target

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .177 against lefties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year.
José Ramírez (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.

How it played out

4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Connor Prielipp. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Friday, August 21, 2026: Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Steven Kwan (100), Chase DeLauter (90), José Ramírez (87). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Friday, August 21, 2026?: Yes — Fernando Tatis Jr. got 1 run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .177 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year. Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year. Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year. José Ramírez (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.