Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, August 20, 2026
Top runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 88, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The lefty is scoring at .168 R/PA against righties this year — and .118 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been getting lit up by righties lately — .160 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 12 career PA against Grayson Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (87) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .145 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (80) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .133 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.128).
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (79) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (79) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a strong bat at .134 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (79) vs RHP Grant Holmes: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.462), hot bat.
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) (77) vs LHP Andrew Alvarez: a strong bat at .146 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.063).
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU) (76) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a league-average bat at .107 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.160).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .156 against lefties this year.
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .196 against lefties this year.
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays