MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Runs · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

CHC @ BAL Runs matchups · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

CHC
CHC
Chicago Cubs
vs
6:35 PM EDT
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
BAL
Oriole Park at Camden YardsElevation 33 ftCenter Field 410 ft

CHC CHC Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from CHC's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.19121 BF
Season.133249 BF
Last 2 Years.119753 BF
wOBA allowed.346
Hard-Hit %35%

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 BF
Season.108185 BF
Last 2 Years.115711 BF
wOBA allowed.291
Hard-Hit %35%

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 6-game hitting streak

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs SD2
Jul 1vs SD2
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 4vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.125

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.19121 PA
Season.133249 PA
Last 2 Years.119753 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.325
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.561

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs SD1
Jul 1vs SD1
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 4vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.108185 PA
Last 2 Years.115711 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head5-for-9

Runs0 in 9 PA
Career Average.556
Plate Appearances9
HR · K · BB1 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.525

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Alex Bregman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs SD1
Jul 1vs SD3
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 4vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.108185 PA
Last 2 Years.115711 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.514

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Seiya Suzuki's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 27@ MIL0
Jun 28@ MIL0
Jun 30vs SD0
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.108185 PA
Last 2 Years.115711 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.502

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Carson Kelly's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs SD1
Jul 1vs SD2
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 4vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.125

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.19121 PA
Season.133249 PA
Last 2 Years.119753 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.325
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.514

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Michael Busch's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs SD0
Jul 1vs SD0
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 4vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.108185 PA
Last 2 Years.115711 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-1

Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.473

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Nico Hoerner's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs SD1
Jul 1vs SD2
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 4vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.125

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.19121 PA
Season.133249 PA
Last 2 Years.119753 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.325
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.483

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Ian Happ's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs SD2
Jul 1vs SD4
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 4vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.108185 PA
Last 2 Years.115711 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-1

Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.452

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Dansby Swanson's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 5vs SF0
Jun 30vs SD1
Jul 1vs SD1
Jul 3vs STL0
Jul 5vs STL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.108185 PA
Last 2 Years.115711 PA

Opposing Starter · Season17 GS

W–L4–8
ERA4.19
WHIP1.37
IP101.0
H / K / BB99 / 87 / 39

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.313
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.44

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kevin Alcántara's full player page →

BAL BAL Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from BAL's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00015 BF
Season.14734 BF
Last 2 Years.069248 BF
wOBA allowed.239
Hard-Hit %43%

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 BF
Season.135111 BF
Last 2 Years.113781 BF
wOBA allowed.365
Hard-Hit %41%

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs CWS2
Jul 1vs CWS1
Jul 3@ CIN1
Jul 4@ CIN1
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.108

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00015 PA
Season.14734 PA
Last 2 Years.069248 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-5

Runs0 in 6 PA
Career Average.167
Plate Appearances6
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.525

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Gunnar Henderson's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 29vs CWS0
Jul 1vs CWS0
Jul 3@ CIN1
Jul 4@ CIN1
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-6

Runs0 in 6 PA
Career Average.333
Plate Appearances6
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.534

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Adley Rutschman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs CWS0
Jul 1vs CWS0
Jul 3@ CIN0
Jul 4@ CIN0
Jul 5@ CIN1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-1

Runs0 in 1 PA
Career Average1.000
Plate Appearances1
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.522

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Taylor Ward's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs CWS0
Jul 1vs CWS0
Jul 3@ CIN0
Jul 4@ CIN1
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-5

Runs0 in 5 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances5
HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.51

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Pete Alonso's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 26vs WSH1
Jun 27vs WSH0
Jun 28vs WSH0
Jul 1vs CWS0
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-3

Runs0 in 3 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances3
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.498

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Coby Mayo's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 26vs WSH1
Jun 27vs WSH0
Jun 28vs WSH0
Jul 1vs CWS1
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-3

Runs0 in 3 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances3
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.481

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Tyler O'Neill's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 28vs WSH0
Jun 30vs CWS0
Jul 1vs CWS2
Jul 4@ CIN1
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-3

Runs0 in 3 PA
Career Average.667
Plate Appearances3
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.469

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Leody Taveras's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 22@ LAA1
Jun 23@ LAA0
Jun 24@ LAA0
Jun 27vs WSH1
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.457

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Jeremiah Jackson's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30vs CWS0
Jul 1vs CWS1
Jul 3@ CIN0
Jul 4@ CIN1
Jul 5@ CIN0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.118

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10030 PA
Season.135111 PA
Last 2 Years.113781 PA

Opposing Starter · Season7 GS

W–L3–1
ERA5.08
WHIP1.40
IP33.2
H / K / BB37 / 37 / 10

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.331
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.446

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Blaze Alexander's full player page →