MatchWiz

Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner — our top-20 calls on him have hit 83% this season. His matchups, projections, and the full graded record.

Last scored board
62
Hits · @ SD · 2026-10-01
Our calls on him · hits
83%
1+ hit in 24/29 top-20 calls
Games graded
156
this season, box-score final
Nico Hoerner
2BBats RThrows RChicago Cubs
Hits62/100proj 1.1#6Stolen Bases56.3/100proj 0.1#5Singles50.2/100proj 0.6#8H+R+RBI34.5/100proj 1.6#12Doubles33.1/100proj 0.2#10Fantasy Points25.8/100proj 6.1#13Total Bases20/100proj 1.4#15Walks14.6/100proj 0.3#15Runs8.8/100proj 0.4#17Triples5.1/100proj 0#17RBIs4.7/100proj 0.4#17Home Runs0/100proj 0.1#18

Last scored matchup

Nico isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 7 days ago, away at San Diego Padres on Thursday, October 1, 2026, where he landed on hits (62/100), stolen bases (56.3/100), singles (50.2/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Nico is 11-for-36 (.306) over his last 10 games, in line with his .267 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Nico has 8 home runs and 38 extra-base hits in 622 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Nico hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Nico has recorded at least one hit in 108 of 156 games he's batted in — 69% — with 41 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Nico is hitting .265 at home (82-for-310) and .269 on the road (84-for-312) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Nico's biggest night was Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at SD — 2-for-4 with 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Nico have graded

We've ranked Nico a top-20 hitter matchup 29 times this season. He got a hit in 24 of them — 83%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Nico was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: hits graded 62/100 while home runs came in at 0/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Nico's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, September 30@ SD42001
Tuesday, September 29@ SD42000
Sunday, September 27@ BOS20000
Friday, September 25@ BOS40000
Friday, September 25@ BOS42000
Thursday, September 24vs MIA41001
Wednesday, September 23vs MIA31000
Tuesday, September 22vs MIA30000
Sunday, September 20@ CIN41001
Saturday, September 19@ CIN42011
Friday, September 18@ CIN41010
Wednesday, September 16vs ATL40000

Nico Hoerner — FAQ

Is Nico Hoerner playing today?

Nico Hoerner isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Thursday, October 1, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Nico Hoerner graded?

In the 29 games where our model ranked Nico a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 24 times — 83%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Nico Hoerner been hitting lately?

Nico is 11-for-36 (.306) over his last 10 games, against .267 on the season across 622 at-bats in our log, with 8 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Nico Hoerner appear on?

Nico was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — hits, stolen bases, singles, h+r+rbi, doubles. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Nico Hoerner's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).