MatchWiz

Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson — hitting .207 in our graded log with 18 home runs. The model's read on his matchups, and where it's been right.

Last scored board
49.5
Runs · @ SD · 2026-10-01
Our calls on him · hits
0%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
124
this season, box-score final
Dansby Swanson
SSBats RThrows RChicago Cubs
Runs49.5/100proj 0.5#9Stolen Bases43.8/100proj 0.1#7Home Runs37.7/100proj 0.1#10RBIs34.3/100proj 0.4#12Walks24.7/100proj 0.3#14Fantasy Points23.8/100proj 6#15H+R+RBI23/100proj 1.6#15Triples17.3/100proj 0#13Total Bases4.5/100proj 1.3#17Hits1.4/100proj 0.9#17Doubles0/100proj 0.1#18Singles0/100proj 0.5#18

Last scored matchup

Dansby isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 6 days ago, away at San Diego Padres on Thursday, October 1, 2026, where he landed on runs (49.5/100), stolen bases (43.8/100), home runs (37.7/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

He's in a cold stretch

Dansby is 4-for-31 (.129) across his last 10 games, down from .207 on the season. Slumps this size are mostly noise at this sample — 31 at-bats is a fortnight, not a trend — and the model treats it that way, discounting the cold run rather than writing him off. If the matchup underneath is good, he'll still grade well here. That's a feature, and sometimes it's wrong.

What kind of hitter he is

Dansby has 18 home runs and 35 extra-base hits in 425 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Dansby hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Dansby has recorded at least one hit in 60 of 122 games he's batted in — 49% — with 23 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Dansby is hitting .217 at home (44-for-203) and .198 on the road (44-for-222) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Dansby's biggest night was Saturday, September 19, 2026 at CIN — 2-for-4 with 1 homer, 1 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked Dansby a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 2 times so far. He's appeared in 124 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

Dansby was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: runs graded 49.5/100 while singles came in at 0/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Dansby and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Dansby specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, September 30@ SD30000
Tuesday, September 29@ SD30000
Sunday, September 27@ BOS30000
Friday, September 25@ BOS40010
Thursday, September 24vs MIA30000
Wednesday, September 23vs MIA31002
Tuesday, September 22vs MIA50000
Saturday, September 19@ CIN42121
Friday, September 18@ CIN31010
Sunday, August 16vs STL00000
Friday, August 14vs STL31010
Thursday, August 13@ WSH10000

Dansby Swanson — FAQ

Is Dansby Swanson playing today?

Dansby Swanson isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Thursday, October 1, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How has Dansby Swanson been hitting lately?

Dansby is 4-for-31 (.129) over his last 10 games, against .207 on the season across 425 at-bats in our log, with 18 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Dansby Swanson appear on?

Dansby was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — runs, stolen bases, home runs, rbis, walks. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Dansby Swanson's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).