MatchWiz

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsMonday, August 3, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, August 3, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 3, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 3/3 (100%) on our strikeout over/under, against 52% on the season.

Top 3
3/3100%
season 52%
Top 5
5/5100%
season 50%
Full slate
11/1669%
season 52%

Top call Cam Schlittler came through. Matthew Boyd didn't.

Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60%a +9% return.

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.8% K / BF

vs LHB32.5%
vs RHB24.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 6@ TB8
Jul 11@ WSH6
Jul 19vs LAD8
Jul 24@ PHI12
Jul 29@ CWS8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.7%3.0
2. Jordan Walker (R)25.9%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)18.2%3.0
4. Iván Herrera (R)21.1%3.0
5. Bryan Torres (L)20.3%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.8%2.5
7. Nathan Church (L)21.0%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)15.7%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-150+115
FDFanDuel-148+116

We project 6.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs WSH4
Jul 2@ KC8
Jul 7vs NYY12
Jul 12vs SEA3
Jul 18@ BOS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)20.3%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)20.3%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (R)21.2%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)28.5%2.4
5. Mickey Moniak (L)25.7%2.0
6. Willi Castro (R)23.9%2.0
7. Tyler Freeman (R)18.0%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)17.7%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-157+118
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-163+127
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-146+114

We project 5.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ LAD5
Jul 8vs AZ4
Jul 17@ KC4
Jul 22@ ATL7
Jul 28vs COL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.4%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.6%3.0
3. Max Kepler (L)19.8%3.0
4. Ketel Marte (L)18.4%3.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%3.0
6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)25.3%2.3
7. Tim Tawa (R)21.5%2.0
8. James McCann (R)24.6%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers-107-125
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+101-129
FANFanatics+100-130
FDFanDuel+106-136

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ COL2
Jul 8vs TOR2
Jul 18@ SEA5
Jul 24vs LAA4
Jul 29vs MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)21.9%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)23.4%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)21.9%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.6%3.0
5. Evan Carter (L)20.5%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)25.7%3.0
7. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.1%2.5
8. Austin Wynns (R)25.4%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-169+130
BRBetRivers-175+128
BOVBovada-165+125
FDFanDuel-164+128

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ MIN3
Jun 30@ ATH11
Jul 7vs COL9
Jul 21@ PHI7
Jul 28vs SEA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.2%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.1%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)16.8%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)20.7%3.0
5. Michael Busch (L)21.6%2.9
6. Nico Hoerner (R)15.6%2.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (R)20.6%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)26.9%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+100-130
BRBetRivers-105-127
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings-105-121
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs CIN7
Jul 5@ AZ4
Jul 11@ PIT3
Jul 21vs NYM4
Jul 27@ SF5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)20.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.4%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.0%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)31.4%2.4
5. Spencer Horwitz (L)18.8%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.0%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)23.4%2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)20.0%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+103-133
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+100-128
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ PHI6
Jul 5@ WSH0
Jul 11vs MIL6
Jul 22@ NYY5
Jul 28vs AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)22.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.9%3.0
3. Christian Yelich (L)23.2%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.6%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)24.3%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.8%2.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.7%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)21.1%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
BOLBetOnline-141+109
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-133+104
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 7@ BAL7
Jul 12@ CIN3
Jul 18vs MIN4
Jul 24@ PIT4
Jul 29@ STL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)19.9%3.0
3. Tommy Edman (R)21.8%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)20.6%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)14.0%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)20.0%2.8
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)20.9%2.0
8. Enrique Hernández (R)22.0%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-139+107
BRBetRivers-143+108
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-142+111
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-140+110

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB26.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5@ KC7
Jul 10@ DET8
Jul 16vs NYM6
Jul 22vs LAD4
Jul 28@ MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)24.7%3.0
2. Abimelec Ortiz (L)22.0%3.0
3. José Tena (L)25.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)18.2%3.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)12.9%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)19.1%2.3
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.5%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.1%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOLBetOnline+106-137
BRBetRivers+108-143
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+112-143
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+100-128

We project 4.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs KC5
Jun 21@ TB6
Jun 26@ BAL5
Jul 7vs HOU3
Jul 20@ COL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)18.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.1%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)24.4%2.8
4. Alec Bohm (R)16.4%2.0
5. Bryan De La Cruz (R)21.6%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)19.5%2.0
7. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.0%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)27.5%2.0
9. Garrett Stubbs (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+106-137
BRBetRivers+112-150
DKDraftKings+101-129
FDFanDuel+110-140

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.9% K / BF

vs LHB16.4%
vs RHB19.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ ATL3
Jul 8vs MIL6
Jul 17@ AZ5
Jul 23vs AZ3
Jul 28vs CHC2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)18.6%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)23.5%3.0
3. Luis García Jr. (L)22.0%3.0
4. Spencer Jones (L)29.7%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.0%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)28.0%2.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)26.5%2.0
8. José Caballero (R)21.2%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+118-154
BRBetRivers+125-167
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+129-165
FANFanatics+125-165
FDFanDuel+124-160

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2vs MIA1
Jul 7@ LAD5
Jul 12@ SF1
Jul 21vs WSH5
Jul 28@ SD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.9%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.0%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)19.8%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%3.0
5. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.0%2.9
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.3%2.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)22.0%2.0
8. Kenny Piper (R)22.0%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+126-164
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+121-154
FDFanDuel+132-170

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.5%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4@ SEA3
Jul 10@ SD4
Jul 18vs CWS6
Jul 23vs TB3
Jul 28@ WSH0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.6%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.8%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)14.9%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)20.3%2.7
5. Christian Walker (R)26.2%2.0
6. Jose Altuve (R)20.6%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)26.9%2.0
8. Yainer Diaz (R)22.0%2.0
9. Cam Smith (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+135-185
BOLBetOnline+139-182
BOVBovada+125-165
FANFanatics+125-165
FDFanDuel+128-162

We project 3.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB16.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ TOR5
Jul 4vs DET2
Jul 10vs HOU1
Jul 17@ ATL3
Jul 28@ TB7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nate Furman (L)22.0%3.0
2. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.9%2.9
3. Willy Adames (R)25.5%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.4%2.0
5. Daniel Susac (R)22.0%2.0
6. Drew Gilbert (L)16.1%2.0
7. Osleivis Basabe (R)22.8%2.0
8. Grant McCray (L)26.2%2.0
9. Christian Koss (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-123-105
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-125-102
FDFanDuel-122-104

We project 3.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cal Quantrill's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%
vs RHB17.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 6@ SD6
Jul 11@ LAD2
Jul 18vs STL3
Jul 23@ STL1
Jul 28@ PIT4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.0%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.9%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)21.8%3.0
4. Ty France (R)21.0%2.1
5. Jackson Merrill (L)23.8%2.0
6. Luis Rengifo (L)15.4%2.0
7. Luis Campusano (R)23.5%2.0
8. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.2%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BRBetRivers+128-175
BOVBovada+140-185
FDFanDuel+140-180

We project 3.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.8 BF

Expected batters faced17.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 28vs LAA1
Apr 3@ ATH2
Apr 8@ COL1
Jul 12@ TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness17.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)13.6%2.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.4%2.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.1%2.0
4. George Springer (R)17.8%2.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.7%2.0
6. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.0%2.0
7. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)20.2%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)14.0%1.8

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-136+102
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-157+123
FDFanDuel-142+112

We project 3.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

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What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.