Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?

Zack Wheeler (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against BAL. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, August 2, 2026: Zack Wheeler (~7.0 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~7.1 K), Gavin Williams (~6.4 K), Chase Burns (~6.2 K), Griffin Jax (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, August 2, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +10% return.

1:35 PM ET

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 1:35 PM ET

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup38 1:37 PM ET

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup27 1:40 PM ET

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup84 1:40 PM ET

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup71 1:40 PM ET

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup61 1:40 PM ET

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup28 2:10 PM ET

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup41 2:20 PM ET

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup54 3:10 PM ET

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup23 3:15 PM ET

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup99 4:05 PM ET

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup7 4:10 PM ET

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup51 4:10 PM ET

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup60 7:20 PM ET

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup46

PROJ29 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.9% K / BF

vs LHB29.3%

vs RHB27.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs PIT10

Jul 7@ CIN14

Jul 12@ DET10

Jul 21vs LAD9

Jul 27@ MIA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Coby Mayo (R)31.2%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)19.8%3.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.8%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.3%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)25.8%2.9

6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)20.8%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)23.1%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)21.2%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate36.8% K / BF

vs LHB39.3%

vs RHB28.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs CHC8

Jul 2vs CIN10

Jul 7@ STL11

Jul 20vs NYM6

Jul 26vs COL12

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)13.8%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.0%3.0

5. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.8%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)24.1%2.0

7. Denzer Guzman (R)22.7%2.0

8. Travis d'Arnaud (R)23.7%2.0

9. Jose Siri (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.1% K / BF

vs LHB30.5%

vs RHB29.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3vs CWS6

Jul 9@ MIN11

Jul 18vs PIT11

Jul 23vs MIN11

Jul 28@ CIN12

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)22.7%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.9%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.3%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)18.2%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)21.0%3.0

6. Tim Tawa (R)21.4%2.2

7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.2%2.0

8. James McCann (R)25.8%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)28.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ PIT10

Jul 2@ MIL4

Jul 8vs PHI2

Jul 21@ SEA6

Jul 28vs CLE4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (L)19.0%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.6%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.6%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)30.9%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)18.6%2.9

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.9%2.0

7. Jared Triolo (R)23.1%2.0

8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)21.7%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.3%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 6vs NYY10

Jul 11vs SEA3

Jul 17@ BOS6

Jul 22@ TOR5

Jul 28vs TEX10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)26.7%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)31.4%3.0

5. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.5%2.4

6. Braden Montgomery (L)20.0%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.0%2.0

8. Chase Meidroth (R)21.1%2.0

9. Edgar Quero (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 7vs CLE10

Jul 12vs LAA6

Jul 18@ CHC6

Jul 23@ CLE5

Jul 28vs KC10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)17.3%3.0

2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.7%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.6%3.0

4. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.7%3.0

5. Cal Raleigh (L)25.7%3.0

6. Josh Naylor (L)15.1%3.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)30.3%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)24.3%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3vs MIN7

Jul 8@ TB6

Jul 17vs LAD8

Jul 22vs PIT11

Jul 28@ CWS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.0%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.5%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.2%3.0

4. Carson Kelly (R)18.4%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)23.5%3.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.2%2.4

7. Ian Happ (L)26.1%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)21.4%2.0

9. James Triantos (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ LAD5

Jul 8vs AZ4

Jul 17@ KC4

Jul 22@ ATL7

Jul 28vs COL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Bryce Eldridge (L)28.0%3.0

2. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.4%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)24.9%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)23.6%3.0

5. Willy Adames (R)26.1%3.0

6. Daniel Susac (R)22.3%2.5

7. Drew Gilbert (L)15.6%2.0

8. Christian Koss (R)20.3%2.0

9. Osleivis Basabe (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB25.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ SD5

Jul 5vs SD5

Jul 12vs AZ7

Jul 20@ PHI6

Jul 26@ NYM5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Anthony Seigler (L)20.0%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)18.7%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)25.1%3.0

4. Caleb Durbin (R)17.0%2.3

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.3%2.0

6. Nick Sogard (L)21.5%2.0

7. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.5%2.0

8. Jarren Duran (L)25.8%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs WSH2

Jul 5@ CIN5

Jul 11vs KC5

Jul 22@ BOS4

Jul 27@ DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.9%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.7%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.3%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.6%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)22.7%3.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)23.4%2.9

7. Bryson Stott (L)20.7%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)20.2%2.0

9. Bryan De La Cruz (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ PIT5

Jun 29vs LAA7

Jul 8@ MIA7

Jul 20vs CIN6

Jul 27@ TEX3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)19.5%3.0

2. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.3%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)22.3%3.0

4. Royce Lewis (R)23.2%3.0

5. Brooks Lee (L)16.8%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)16.2%2.8

7. Victor Caratini (L)18.5%2.0

8. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.2%2.0

9. Austin Martin (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5vs TB6

Jul 11@ TEX7

Jul 17vs BAL10

Jul 22vs MIA3

Jul 28@ LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)21.3%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)22.8%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.9%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.9%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)21.3%3.0

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.9%2.4

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)19.7%2.0

8. Elias Díaz (R)23.8%2.0

9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ AZ4

Jul 6vs TOR5

Jul 17@ SEA2

Jul 22@ KC7

Jul 28vs MIL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.1%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.9%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.7%3.0

4. Ty France (R)21.1%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)23.3%3.0

6. Luis Rengifo (L)15.5%2.1

7. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.3%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)19.5%2.0

9. Jase Bowen (R)28.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5vs PIT3

Jul 12vs NYY5

Jul 17@ ATH9

Jul 22@ COL8

Jul 28vs TOR3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)19.1%3.0

2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)23.7%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)21.1%3.0

5. Ozzie Albies (L)21.0%2.1

6. Dominic Smith (L)16.8%2.0

7. Austin Riley (R)32.0%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.0%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ TOR5

Jul 5vs DET4

Jul 11vs HOU6

Jul 21vs CWS6

Jul 27vs SEA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.8%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.5%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)14.9%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)25.8%3.0

5. Yainer Diaz (R)16.4%2.4

6. Jose Altuve (R)21.4%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)27.5%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)26.1%2.0

9. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs ATH5

Jul 2@ SEA6

Jul 8@ TEX3

Jul 21vs STL5

Jul 27vs HOU5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)22.4%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.5%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)23.5%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)17.3%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)25.6%2.9

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.2%2.0

7. Luis Lara (L)19.0%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)21.5%2.0

9. Cooper Pratt (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs CIN4

Jul 3@ WSH1

Jul 9vs ATL3

Jul 22@ NYY6

Jul 27vs AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.7%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)22.4%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.9%3.0

4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)24.4%3.0

5. Noelvi Marte (R)21.0%2.8

6. Eugenio Suárez (R)31.1%2.0

7. Jose Trevino (R)19.9%2.0

8. TJ Friedl (L)20.8%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ LAA6

Jul 8@ CWS4

Jul 17vs TB3

Jul 22vs BAL4

Jul 28@ ATH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.2%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)20.1%3.0

3. Tommy Edman (R)21.0%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)21.6%3.0

5. Enrique Hernández (R)20.6%3.0

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)21.9%2.2

7. Max Muncy (L)23.4%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)15.1%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs SD5

Jul 8@ BAL2

Jul 17vs MIN6

Jul 22vs DET5

Jul 28@ STL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness25.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Max Schuemann (R)23.8%3.0

2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.8%3.0

3. Amed Rosario (R)26.6%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.1%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)28.1%2.9

6. Anthony Volpe (R)26.0%2.0

7. Spencer Jones (L)29.9%2.0

8. Ali Sánchez (R)23.1%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.2 BF

Expected batters faced25.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4@ ATH8

Jul 10vs CLE8

Jul 17@ MIL7

Jul 22@ HOU3

Jul 28vs PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)25.3%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)21.5%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)19.5%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)22.8%3.0

5. Jared Young (L)19.8%3.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)23.3%3.0

7. Brett Baty (L)24.6%3.0

8. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.9%2.3

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ ATL9

Jul 5@ CHC3

Jul 11vs ATL6

Jul 21@ LAA7

Jul 27vs CHC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Urías (R)21.9%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.8%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.8%3.0

4. George Springer (R)19.8%2.9

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)21.6%2.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.1%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)15.1%2.0

8. Myles Straw (R)20.6%2.0

9. Davis Schneider (R)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 7@ NYM4

Jul 12@ BAL6

Jul 17vs SD3

Jul 22vs SF5

Jul 28@ MIN2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)20.1%3.0

2. Kyle Karros (R)22.3%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)18.2%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)31.1%3.0

5. Mickey Moniak (L)23.5%3.0

6. Cole Carrigg (L)19.7%2.3

7. Willi Castro (L)26.2%2.0

8. Tyler Freeman (R)15.8%2.0

9. Brenton Doyle (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs MIA7

Jul 6@ LAD2

Jul 11@ SF9

Jul 20vs WSH4

Jul 26@ MIL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)28.3%3.0

2. Lane Thomas (R)22.9%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)25.9%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.6%3.0

5. Isaac Collins (R)21.9%3.0

6. Nick Loftin (R)17.4%2.7

7. Michael Massey (L)22.8%2.0

8. John Rave (L)20.5%2.0

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)16.5%3.0

2. Heriberto Hernández (R)28.6%3.0

3. Liam Hicks (L)13.0%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)17.2%3.0

5. Leo Jiménez (R)20.8%3.0

6. Kyle Stowers (L)27.5%2.0

7. Javier Sanoja (R)11.3%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)24.9%2.0

9. Griffin Conine (L)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Robert Stock's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.1%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 12vs MIN3

Apr 18@ AZ1

Apr 24vs CLE0

Jun 10vs PHI4

Jul 27@ WSH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.2%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)26.3%2.9

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.3%2.0

4. Iván Herrera (R)21.3%2.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.8%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.3%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)21.5%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)16.5%2.0

9. Jimmy Crooks (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Scherzer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4vs MIL6

Jul 9@ SD6

Jul 17vs STL3

Jul 22vs ATH3

Jul 27@ PIT6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)12.7%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)15.6%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.2%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)28.0%3.0

5. Angel Martínez (L)24.8%3.0

6. David Fry (R)23.6%3.0

7. Travis Bazzana (L)21.7%2.4

8. Austin Hedges (R)22.1%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.0 BF

Expected batters faced15.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5vs MIA1

Jul 11@ CWS7

Jul 17vs WSH8

Jul 22@ AZ5

Jul 28vs BOS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)21.1%2.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)21.8%2.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)23.1%2.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.4%2.0

5. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.2%2.0

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)23.8%2.0

7. Max Clark (L)22.0%1.0

8. Javier Báez (R)20.3%1.0

9. Ben Malgeri (R)22.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.1 BF

Expected batters faced19.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs MIN4

Jun 21vs CWS3

Jun 26vs HOU3

Jul 22@ CHC8

Jul 27vs BAL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.8%3.0

2. Jacob Wilson (R)14.4%2.1

3. Jonah Heim (L)20.1%2.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.5%2.0

5. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.0

6. Lawrence Butler (L)23.5%2.0

7. Henry Bolte (R)21.9%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)14.9%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Keider Montero's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3@ CLE2

Jul 9vs BOS4

Jul 17@ TOR5

Jul 22@ TEX4

Jul 28vs NYY7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.9%3.0

2. Chandler Simpson (L)16.2%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)17.1%3.0

4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)20.9%2.9

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.8%2.0

6. Ryan Vilade (R)23.9%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)21.9%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)16.8%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Anthony Kay's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026

Zack Wheeler (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, August 2, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K, with Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against BAL. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and BAL has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (99) — about 7.1 K vs LAA: a 37% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Gavin Williams (CLE) (84) — about 6.4 K vs AZ: a 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Chase Burns (CIN) (71) — about 6.2 K vs PIT: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Griffin Jax (TB) (61) — about 6.0 K vs CWS: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Taj Bradley (MIN) (60) — about 6.2 K vs SEA: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

NYY is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Colin Rea is the arm to exploit it (31).
CIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Mitch Keller is the arm to exploit it (32).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Zack Wheeler is the arm to exploit it (100).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Chase Burns is the arm to exploit it (71).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, August 2, 2026)?: Zack Wheeler (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against BAL. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, August 2, 2026: Zack Wheeler (~7.0 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~7.1 K), Gavin Williams (~6.4 K), Chase Burns (~6.2 K), Griffin Jax (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays