Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, August 4, 2026)?

Tarik Skubal (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against CHC. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, August 4, 2026: Tarik Skubal (~6.4 K), Logan Henderson (~6.3 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.6 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.8 K), J.T. Ginn (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

6:35 PM ET

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup54 6:40 PM ET

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup71 6:40 PM ET

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup81 6:40 PM ET

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup93 7:05 PM ET

STLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup53 7:10 PM ET

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup58 7:15 PM ET

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup35 7:40 PM ET

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup68 7:40 PM ET

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup96 8:05 PM ET

SFaway

TEXhomeTop matchup81 8:05 PM ET

LADaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 8:10 PM ET

TORaway

HOUhomeTop matchup69 8:40 PM ET

TBaway

COLhomeTop matchup51 9:40 PM ET

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup20 9:40 PM ET

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup39

PROJ28 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.6% K / BF

vs LHB29.3%

vs RHB27.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 7vs ATH9

Jul 12vs PHI5

Jul 18@ LAA9

Jul 24vs KC12

Jul 29vs BAL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.2%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.1%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.8%3.0

4. Carson Kelly (R)20.7%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)21.6%3.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)15.6%2.2

7. Pedro Ramírez (R)22.0%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)26.9%2.0

9. Kevin Alcántara (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.9% K / BF

vs LHB28.4%

vs RHB27.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22vs LAD7

Jul 9@ STL4

Jul 17vs MIA4

Jul 22vs NYM9

Jul 28@ SF7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (L)20.4%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.4%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.0%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)31.4%2.5

5. Spencer Horwitz (L)18.8%2.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.0%2.0

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)23.4%2.0

8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Henderson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4@ KC9

Jul 9@ CIN11

Jul 18vs NYM7

Jul 24vs NYY9

Jul 29@ MIA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.6%3.0

2. Abimelec Ortiz (L)22.0%3.0

3. José Tena (L)24.0%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)28.6%3.0

5. Keibert Ruiz (R)19.1%2.5

6. Daylen Lile (L)21.8%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (R)18.0%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.4%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 8vs LAA7

Jul 12vs HOU4

Jul 18@ ATL7

Jul 24vs SEA5

Jul 29@ TB9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nate Furman (L)22.0%3.0

2. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.0%3.0

3. Willy Adames (R)25.4%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.2%3.0

5. Daniel Susac (R)19.4%3.0

6. Drew Gilbert (L)27.2%2.2

7. Osleivis Basabe (R)20.8%2.0

8. Grant McCray (L)24.4%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ LAA5

Jul 1vs LAD4

Jul 7@ DET4

Jul 12@ CWS7

Jul 18vs WSH7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)22.0%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)23.1%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.3%3.0

4. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.7%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.0%3.0

6. Dane Myers (R)25.1%2.7

7. Noelvi Marte (R)22.0%2.0

8. Matt McLain (R)22.0%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

J.T. Ginn's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB27.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 7@ MIN7

Jul 12@ MIA9

Jul 19vs PIT7

Jul 24@ TB4

Jul 29@ CIN8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)24.3%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (R)17.2%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)19.0%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)24.4%3.0

5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.0%2.8

6. Jared Young (L)22.9%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)22.0%2.0

8. Jorge Polanco (R)22.0%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5@ SEA7

Jul 11@ SD1

Jul 19vs CWS9

Jul 24@ BOS9

Jul 29@ WSH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.6%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.8%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)14.9%3.0

4. Daulton Varsho (L)20.3%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)26.2%2.8

6. Jose Altuve (R)20.6%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)26.9%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)16.8%2.0

9. Cam Smith (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ HOU5

Jul 5@ NYY9

Jul 11vs LAA6

Jul 20@ CLE3

Jul 29vs KC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)25.7%3.0

2. Nick Loftin (R)17.1%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.6%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.3%3.0

5. Starling Marte (R)22.0%2.1

6. John Rave (L)22.0%2.0

7. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.0%2.0

8. Josh Rojas (L)17.6%2.0

9. Luke Maile (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 9@ CWS5

Jul 18vs TB5

Jul 24vs TOR3

Jul 29@ ATH7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)22.0%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)30.1%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)23.9%3.0

5. Andrew Benintendi (L)24.6%2.5

6. Tristan Peters (L)20.1%2.0

7. Chase Meidroth (R)19.9%2.0

8. Everson Pereira (R)22.0%2.0

9. Drew Romo (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Patrick Sandoval's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2@ PHI6

Jul 8vs ATL8

Jul 18@ CLE9

Jul 24vs CHC5

Jul 29vs AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)22.7%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.9%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)23.2%2.9

4. William Contreras (R)17.6%2.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)24.3%2.0

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.8%2.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.7%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)21.1%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2@ CLE0

Jul 8vs BOS2

Jul 18@ TOR5

Jul 24vs HOU3

Jul 29vs NYY6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Sogard (L)22.0%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)18.7%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.2%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)22.0%2.4

6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.9%2.0

7. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.8%2.0

8. Jarren Duran (L)25.7%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB16.7%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs TB1

Jul 10@ MIN0

Jul 18vs DET3

Jul 24@ SF3

Jul 29vs HOU6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Coby Mayo (R)31.2%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)22.0%3.0

3. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.3%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.0%2.6

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.0%2.0

6. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)20.2%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)22.0%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)22.0%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grayson Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5vs MIN6

Jul 10@ WSH6

Jul 20vs PIT5

Jul 25@ PHI7

Jul 30@ CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.8%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)22.8%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.8%3.0

4. Iván Herrera (R)17.7%3.0

5. Bryan Torres (L)20.3%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.7%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)20.7%2.0

8. José Fermín (R)16.2%2.0

9. Jimmy Crooks (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ TOR4

Jul 6@ ATL6

Jul 11vs BOS6

Jul 20@ MIL6

Jul 26vs LAD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.8%3.0

2. Kyle Karros (R)22.9%3.0

3. Cole Carrigg (L)18.8%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)30.1%3.0

5. Mickey Moniak (L)23.2%2.4

6. Willi Castro (L)26.7%2.0

7. Tyler Freeman (R)15.5%2.0

8. Troy Johnston (L)20.1%2.0

9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4@ ATL4

Jul 9vs KC6

Jul 18@ PHI7

Jul 24vs LAD3

Jul 29vs ATL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)22.0%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)22.0%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)19.4%3.0

4. Travis Bazzana (L)22.0%3.0

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.0%3.0

6. Brayan Rocchio (R)18.5%2.2

7. Gabriel Arias (R)22.0%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (R)22.0%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 30@ PIT4

Jun 11@ NYM5

Jul 7vs MIL4

Jul 22@ LAA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)23.5%3.0

3. Luis García Jr. (L)22.0%3.0

4. Spencer Jones (L)29.7%2.8

5. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.0%2.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)28.0%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)26.5%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)21.2%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 8@ LAD7

Jul 17vs CIN6

Jul 22vs WSH5

Jul 29@ SD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.9%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.0%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)19.8%3.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%2.8

5. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)25.1%2.0

6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.3%2.0

7. Richie Palacios (L)20.6%2.0

8. Kenny Piper (R)22.0%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ CLE6

Jul 5vs TOR5

Jul 12@ TB2

Jul 22vs CIN3

Jul 29@ LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)21.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.7%3.0

3. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.0%3.0

4. Eduardo Valencia (R)22.0%2.9

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)22.0%2.0

6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.0%2.0

7. Max Clark (L)22.0%2.0

8. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 29@ LAA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness17.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)13.6%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.4%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.1%3.0

4. George Springer (R)17.8%3.0

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.7%3.0

6. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.0%2.2

7. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)20.2%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)14.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hayden Wesneski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3vs NYM2

Jul 8@ PIT5

Jul 19vs TEX2

Jul 24@ BAL5

Jul 30vs WSH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)13.1%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)28.5%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)15.7%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)16.6%2.3

5. Griffin Conine (L)27.9%2.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)30.1%2.0

7. Joe Mack (L)24.0%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)22.0%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 3vs BAL6

Jul 9vs PHI5

Jul 17@ COL6

Jul 22@ SEA6

Jul 29vs CLE3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Donovan Walton (L)20.6%3.0

2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.9%3.0

3. Jonah Heim (L)22.0%3.0

4. Tommy White (R)22.0%3.0

5. Lawrence Butler (L)23.6%3.0

6. Carlos Cortes (L)18.7%2.8

7. Alika Williams (R)25.4%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)14.9%2.0

9. Henry Bolte (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.3 BF

Expected batters faced18.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs SF6

Jun 27@ STL4

Jul 2@ COL2

Jul 24vs SD4

Jul 29vs PHI3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.8%2.3

2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.0%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.0%2.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)22.0%2.0

5. Ozzie Albies (L)22.0%2.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.0%2.0

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.0%2.0

8. Austin Riley (R)30.9%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Gusto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.9%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs SEA0

Jun 17vs KC2

Jun 28@ BAL3

Jul 18@ ATH4

Jul 29vs TOR2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.1%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.1%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.7%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.4%2.9

5. Bryan De La Cruz (R)24.0%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)20.0%2.0

7. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.0%2.0

8. Derek Hill (R)27.8%2.0

9. Garrett Stubbs (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Littell's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17vs COL1

Jun 24@ NYM5

Jul 5vs STL2

Jul 11@ CIN4

Jul 30@ STL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.9%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)22.2%2.8

3. Tommy Edman (L)19.3%2.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)16.6%2.0

5. Mookie Betts (R)17.7%2.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)19.2%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)25.6%2.0

8. Enrique Hernández (R)22.3%2.0

9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 5vs MIL3

Jul 10@ LAD5

Jul 19vs STL3

Jul 24@ WSH4

Jul 29@ PIT2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Rengifo (R)19.1%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.9%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.7%3.0

4. Ty France (R)22.6%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)21.2%2.3

6. Luis Campusano (R)21.9%2.0

7. Gavin Sheets (L)23.5%2.0

8. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.2%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.9% K / BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 18vs SD3

Jul 23@ DET3

Jul 29@ MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)22.0%3.0

2. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.0%3.0

3. Josh Bell (L)22.0%3.0

4. Kody Clemens (L)22.0%3.0

5. Royce Lewis (R)22.0%2.3

6. Brooks Lee (L)16.7%2.0

7. Alan Roden (L)19.3%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)16.0%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.4 BF

Expected batters faced14.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)21.9%2.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)23.4%2.0

3. Corey Seager (L)21.9%2.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.6%2.0

5. Evan Carter (L)20.5%2.0

6. Jake Burger (R)25.7%1.4

7. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.1%1.0

8. Austin Wynns (R)25.4%1.0

9. Nicky Lopez (L)19.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Blade Tidwell's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.7% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB16.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs NYM3

Jun 13@ BAL5

Jun 19@ TEX1

Jul 2@ LAD0

Jul 25@ MIA0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.4%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.6%2.2

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.4%2.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)18.4%2.0

5. Max Kepler (L)19.8%2.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.0

7. Tim Tawa (R)21.5%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.6%2.0

9. Tyler Locklear (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Randy Vásquez's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Tarik Skubal (LAD) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K, with Logan Henderson (MIL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal (LAD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against CHC. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CHC has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Logan Henderson (MIL) (96) — about 6.3 K vs PIT: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (93) — about 6.6 K vs WSH: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (81) — about 5.8 K vs SF: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) (81) — about 5.8 K vs CIN: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) (71) — about 5.6 K vs NYM: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Hunter Dobbins is the arm to exploit it (49).
PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Zack Littell is the arm to exploit it (32).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Grayson Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (54).
SF is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — MacKenzie Gore is the arm to exploit it (81).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, August 4, 2026)?: Tarik Skubal (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against CHC. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, August 4, 2026: Tarik Skubal (~6.4 K), Logan Henderson (~6.3 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.6 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.8 K), J.T. Ginn (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays