Best MLB Walks Matchups — Monday, August 24, 2026
Top walks spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Chase Burns. The lefty is working counts at .116 BB/PA against righties this year — and .214 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Chase Burns has been tough to walk against righties lately — .037 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Chase Burns, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: a strong bat at .119 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.148).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (88) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .112 into an arm around league average against the same side (.089).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (86) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.148).
- Nick Sogard (BOS) (84) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .100 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.133), hot bat.
- Corey Seager (TEX) (82) vs RHP José Urquidy: a strong bat at .105 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (82) vs RHP George Klassen: a solid bat at .100 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.040).
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) (81) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .106 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.036).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays