Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Top walks spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Elder. The lefty is working counts at .167 BB/PA against righties this year — and .132 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Bryce Elder has been around league average against righties lately — .094 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .182 in 11 career PA against Bryce Elder, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (98) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.160).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (97) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (90) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.019).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .119 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.136).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (87) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: a solid bat at .100 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100).
- Max Muncy (LAD) (84) vs RHP Bryce Elder: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm around league average against the same side (.094).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (84) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.136).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .131 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays