Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Top walks spot: Mike Trout
Mike Trout (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gavin Williams. The righty is working counts at .170 BB/PA against righties this year — and .121 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Gavin Williams has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .182 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Gavin Williams too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Bryce Elder: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm around league average against the same side (.094), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (99) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.160).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (93) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .121 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .118 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.136).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (90) vs RHP Ethan Pecko: a strong bat at .111 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.250).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (90) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: a strong bat at .100 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100).
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) (88) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .115 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.129).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Mike Trout finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays