Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Rockets114
Spurs110FinalMoody CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rockets | 32 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 114 |
 Spurs | 27 | 32 | 22 | 29 | 110 |
Box score
FinalHouston Rockets
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin DurantF | 37 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 8-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Alperen SengunC | 36 | 29 | 7 | 7 | 10-20 | 2-4 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Amen ThompsonG | 36 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 9-15 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Jabari Smith Jr.F | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Fred VanVleetG | 32 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tari EasonF | 27 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Marcus SmartG | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Steven AdamsC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Bogdan BogdanovicG | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | — | 114 | 44 | 25 | 38-78 | 10-25 | 28-31 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 22 |
Did not play Bruce Thornton coach's decision · Clint Capela coach's decision · Isaiah Crawford coach's decision · Jae'Sean Tate coach's decision
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan HarperG | 36 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 8-15 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Devin VassellG | 36 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| De'Aaron FoxG | 34 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| Stephon CastleG | 33 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 6-15 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Victor WembanyamaF | 32 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 9-21 | 2-6 | 5-8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Julian ChampagnieF | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Keldon JohnsonF | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Luke KornetC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Harrison BarnesF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carter BryantF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | — | 110 | 40 | 21 | 40-87 | 12-37 | 18-25 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 26 |
Did not play Jordan McLaughlin coach's decision · Tarris Reed Jr. coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Rockets | Spurs | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-78 | FG | 40-87 |
| 48.7% | FG% | 46.0% |
| 10-25 | 3PT | 12-37 |
| 40.0% | 3PT% | 32.4% |
| 28-31 | FT | 18-25 |
| 44 | Rebounds | 40 |
| 8 | Off reb | 9 |
| 25 | Assists | 21 |
| 12 | Steals | 10 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 22 | Fouls | 26 |
101.3 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Rockets on 1 day, Spurs on 2 days.
What the model says
Friday, October 23ProjectedRockets 110.5 · Spurs 114.6
Our lineSpurs −4.1
Total225.1
Win probSpurs 66% · Rockets 34%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.