Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Pacers125
Heat145FinalKaseya CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pacers | 42 | 19 | 27 | 37 | 125 |
 Heat | 36 | 32 | 35 | 42 | 145 |
Box score
FinalIndiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew NembhardG | 30 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 8-16 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Pascal SiakamF | 29 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 5-17 | 0-5 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Jarace WalkerF | 28 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Quenton JacksonG | 24 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.G | 22 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Aaron NesmithG | 21 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Kobe BrownG | 20 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jay HuffC | 19 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Larry Nance Jr.F | 18 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen SlawsonF | 18 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Braden SmithG | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 125 | 37 | 28 | 44-91 | 17-37 | 20-27 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
Did not play Ivica Zubac coach's decision · Obi Toppin lower back soreness
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion MitchellG | 35 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 6-16 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Bam AdebayoC | 33 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 11-14 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 31 | 31 | 18 | 10 | 13-19 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 30 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 26 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 9-14 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pelle LarssonG | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Bobby PortisF | 17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nikola JovicF | 16 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan ConwellG | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dru SmithG | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Simone FontecchioF | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myron GardnerF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick RichardsC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | — | 145 | 48 | 38 | 54-93 | 18-40 | 19-23 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 20 |
Team stats
Final| Pacers | Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| 44-91 | FG | 54-93 |
| 48.4% | FG% | 58.1% |
| 17-37 | 3PT | 18-40 |
| 45.9% | 3PT% | 45.0% |
| 20-27 | FT | 19-23 |
| 37 | Rebounds | 48 |
| 14 | Off reb | 15 |
| 28 | Assists | 38 |
| 11 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 21 | Fouls | 20 |
104.0 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Both clubs on 1 day' rest.
What the model says
Friday, October 30ProjectedPacers 116.2 · Heat 126.7
Our lineHeat −10.6
Total242.9
Win probHeat 85% · Pacers 15%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.