Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Mavericks113
Heat109FinalKaseya CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mavericks | 23 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 113 |
 Heat | 27 | 25 | 32 | 25 | 109 |
Box score
FinalDallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. WashingtonF | 41 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 6-15 | 4-11 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Cooper FlaggF | 40 | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12-23 | 2-8 | 3-3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Kyrie IrvingG | 33 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 7-17 | 2-11 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Zaccharie RisacherF | 30 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2-13 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Max ChristieG | 26 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Daniel GaffordF | 26 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Walter Clayton Jr.G | 17 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 6-7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Morez Johnson Jr.F | 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Marcus SasserG | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sergio de LarreaForward | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 113 | 51 | 31 | 43-94 | 14-46 | 13-14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 23 |
Did not play Dwight Powell coach's decision · Jett Howard coach's decision · Moussa Cisse coach's decision · Tobi Lawal coach's decision
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 39 | 29 | 14 | 11 | 12-23 | 2-4 | 3-7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 34 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 6-12 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Pelle LarssonG | 34 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Davion MitchellG | 33 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Bam AdebayoC | 30 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bobby PortisF | 24 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 3-11 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dru SmithG | 15 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | — | 109 | 42 | 26 | 41-92 | 13-41 | 14-25 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
Did not play Myron Gardner coach's decision · Nick Richards coach's decision · Nikola Jovic coach's decision · Ryan Conwell coach's decision · Simone Fontecchio coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Mavericks | Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| 43-94 | FG | 41-92 |
| 45.7% | FG% | 44.6% |
| 14-46 | 3PT | 13-41 |
| 30.4% | 3PT% | 31.7% |
| 13-14 | FT | 14-25 |
| 51 | Rebounds | 42 |
| 13 | Off reb | 10 |
| 31 | Assists | 26 |
| 11 | Steals | 9 |
| 10 | Blocks | 5 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
105.6 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Both clubs on 1 day' rest.
What the model says
Monday, October 26ProjectedMavericks 118.1 · Heat 127.1
Our lineHeat −9.0
Total245.3
Win probHeat 82% · Mavericks 19%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.