Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Thunder96
Mavericks120FinalAmerican Airlines CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder | 30 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 96 |
 Mavericks | 33 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 120 |
Box score
FinalOklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCainG | 29 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3-13 | 0-6 | 4-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Ajay MitchellG | 28 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 12-20 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG | 28 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 7-19 | 1-6 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Bennett StirtzG | 28 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah HartensteinC | 26 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh DixG | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aday MaraC | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Jaylin WilliamsF | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenrich WilliamsG | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Brooks BarnhizerF | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Micah PeavyG | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otega OwehG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 96 | 43 | 17 | 36-87 | 5-32 | 19-23 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 19 |
Did not play Thomas Sorber coach's decision
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper FlaggF | 33 | 26 | 5 | 8 | 10-23 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaccharie RisacherF | 29 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| P.J. WashingtonF | 27 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyrie IrvingG | 27 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6-14 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Daniel GaffordF | 27 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Max ChristieG | 22 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Marcus SasserG | 22 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Morez Johnson Jr.F | 18 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Walter Clayton Jr.G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Caleb MartinF | 14 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jett HowardG | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moussa CisseC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tobi LawalF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 120 | 49 | 30 | 46-97 | 16-45 | 12-15 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 |
Team stats
Final| Thunder | Mavericks | |
|---|---|---|
| 36-87 | FG | 46-97 |
| 41.4% | FG% | 47.4% |
| 5-32 | 3PT | 16-45 |
| 15.6% | 3PT% | 35.6% |
| 19-23 | FT | 12-15 |
| 43 | Rebounds | 49 |
| 12 | Off reb | 15 |
| 17 | Assists | 30 |
| 4 | Steals | 4 |
| 3 | Blocks | 6 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
99.4 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Both clubs on 1 day' rest.
What the model says
Wednesday, October 28ProjectedThunder 124.3 · Mavericks 110.8
Our lineThunder −13.5
Total235.0
Win probMavericks 10% · Thunder 90%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.