Lafayette Leopards vs St. John's Red Storm
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Lafayette37
St John's95FinalCarnesecca ArenaScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lafayette | 9 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 37 |
 St John's | 18 | 22 | 30 | 25 | 95 |
Box score
FinalLafayette Leopards
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haylie AdamskiG | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Carley VoceG | 29 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Tasha ChudyF | 28 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| Haley PoserG | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Johari HallF | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Emma HeaneyG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Maddison KrugF | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sofia ValenteF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn MaysF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sophia BrooksF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 37 | 21 | 5 | 9-36 | 3-16 | 16-24 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 26 | 19 |
Did not play Brynn Beffert dnp · Rosie Scognamiglio dnp · Talia Zurinskas dnp · Teresa Kiewiet dnp
St. John's Red Storm
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke MooreG | 26 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Sa'Mya WyattF | 24 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 5-7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ny'Ceara PryorG | 23 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 7-12 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Janeya GrantG | 23 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 5-10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Daniela AbiesF | 18 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sanaa TrippG | 17 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Olivia TuckerG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Yohana FamiF | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Serenity LancasterF | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Syvannah DawsonG | 10 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Asia DonaldG | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julie BahatiF | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | — | 95 | 37 | 16 | 32-58 | 10-19 | 21-29 | 13 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
Did not play Reina Green dnp
Team stats
Final| Lafayette | St John's | |
|---|---|---|
| 9-36 | FG | 32-58 |
| 25.0% | FG% | 55.2% |
| 3-16 | 3PT | 10-19 |
| 18.8% | 3PT% | 52.6% |
| 16-24 | FT | 21-29 |
| 21 | Rebounds | 37 |
| 5 | Off reb | 13 |
| 5 | Assists | 16 |
| 7 | Steals | 19 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 26 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
68.2 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way.
What the model says
Monday, November 2ProjectedLafayette 48.7 · St John's 65.7
Our lineSt John's −17.0
Total114.4
Win probSt John's 92% · Lafayette 8%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.