Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche
Every goal, both box scores, and each skater against our projection.
Maple Leafs6
Avalanche3FinalSOG TOR 23 – COL 33Ball ArenaScoring
Final- 1st03:03Nick Blankenburg (1)wrist shot · from Nylander and PaulTOR 1 – COL 0
- 10:46Nathan MacKinnon (4)wrist shot · from Kulak and ToewsTOR 1 – COL 1
- 15:14Nathan MacKinnon (5)wrist shot · from Makar and NecasTOR 1 – COL 2
- 2nd06:53William Nylander (4)PPG · snap shot · from McKenna and MatthewsTOR 2 – COL 2
- 12:25Brock Nelson (2)snap shot · UnassistedTOR 2 – COL 3
- 16:47William Nylander (5)wrist shot · from Matthews and PaulTOR 3 – COL 3
- 17:33Easton Cowan (3)slap shot · from Rielly and NylanderTOR 4 – COL 3
- 3rd12:02Auston Matthews (3)PPG · wrist shot · from Nylander and MarchenkoTOR 5 – COL 3
- 19:21Auston Matthews (4)wrist shot · UnassistedTOR 6 – COL 3
By period
Goals, shots under| Goals | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 34 | 211 | 6 | 23 |
| COL | 211 | 113 | 09 | 3 | 33 |
Three stars
- ★
W. NylanderTOR · R · 2 G, 3 A - ★★
A. MatthewsTOR · C · 2 G, 2 A - ★★★
N. MacKinnonCOL · C · 2 G
Against our projection
Gold = at or past his number| Skater | SOG proj | SOG | PTS proj | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 4.3 | 8 | 1.59 | 2 |
| Martin NecasCOL | 3.0 | 2 | 1.32 | 1 |
| William NylanderTOR | 2.4 | 4 | 1.02 | 5 |
| Cale MakarCOL | 2.6 | 3 | 1.01 | 1 |
| Brock NelsonCOL | 2.3 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 |
| Artturi LehkonenCOL | 2.4 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 |
| Auston MatthewsTOR | 3.2 | 5 | 0.81 | 4 |
| Kirill MarchenkoTOR | 2.8 | 0 | 0.80 | 1 |
| Gabriel LandeskogCOL | 2.3 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 |
| Jaden SchwartzCOL | 1.8 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| Darren RaddyshTOR | 2.3 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 |
| Nazem KadriCOL | 2.5 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 |
| T.J. HughesCOL | 2.2 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 |
| Parker KellyCOL | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 |
| Sam MalinskiCOL | 2.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 |
| Jack RoslovicTOR | 2.0 | 5 | 0.54 | 0 |
Box score
FinalToronto Maple Leafs
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. NylanderR | 2 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 |
| A. MatthewsC | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22:06 |
| N. PaulL | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:15 |
| N. BlankenburgD | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 |
| E. CowanR | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:07 |
| M. RiellyD | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18:48 |
| K. MarchenkoR | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:53 |
| G. McKennaL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 |
| J. McCabeD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 23:40 |
| D. RaddyshD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 21:13 |
| T. StecherD | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 18:33 |
| C. SissonsC | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 |
| J. RoslovicC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:21 |
| O. Ekman-LarssonD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 |
| T. BluegerC | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 |
| B. DuhaimeL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:58 |
| B. GroulxC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 09:05 |
| C. TanevD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 03:29 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 59:55 | W |
Colorado Avalanche
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnonC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:56 |
| B. NelsonC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 |
| M. NecasC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 |
| C. MakarD | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:37 |
| D. ToewsD | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:05 |
| B. KulakD | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:02 |
| N. KadriC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 |
| A. LehkonenL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 |
| S. MalinskiD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:24 |
| G. LandeskogL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:52 |
| J. MansonD | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:55 |
| B. BurnsD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:41 |
| T. HughesR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:00 |
| P. KellyC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:35 |
| F. SvechkovC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:18 |
| J. SchwartzL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:39 |
| N. RoyC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 08:59 |
| Z. L'HeureuxL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 07:57 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 22 | 17 | 5 | .773 | 56:56 | L |
Team stats
Final| TOR | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Shots on goal | 33 |
| 30/64 | Faceoffs | 34/64 |
| 2/4 | Power play | 0/5 |
| 12 | Penalty minutes | 10 |
| 22 | Hits | 16 |
| 22 | Blocked shots | 10 |
| 10 | Giveaways | 15 |
| 5 | Takeaways | 6 |
What the model said
Before puck dropProjected scoreTOR 2.8 – COL 3.9
Win chanceCOL 67%
Total 6.5Over 52%
These are projections, not picks. We post our number beside the market's and grade it in the open.