NHL Player Props
Eight markets, every skater and goalie in the league, off three seasons of game logs. Each one is shrunk on a prior solved from that season's own data — goals about five times harder than shots, because goals are five times rarer.
Shots on GoalModelEvery skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.View board →PointsRateGoals plus assists per 60. The cleanest read on who drives offence, before you know who he'll skate with tonight.View board →AssistsRateHelpers per 60 — the most linemate-dependent number on the board, and the one that moves most when a line changes.View board →GoalsRateGoals per 60. Rare enough that a player's own sample says little, so this one is shrunk about five times harder than shots.View board →Blocked ShotsRateThe one board defencemen own — they block 4.21 per 60 against a forward's 1.99, the only market where the position gap runs that way.View board →SavesRateSaves per 60 across starts only. It measures the shots a goalie faces as much as the goalie — the busiest nets sit top of this board.View board →Anytime GoalRateThe chance a skater scores at all tonight, at his own average ice time — derived from his goal rate rather than counted.View board →First GoalRateWho opens the scoring. Almost entirely noise once you subtract it — the flattest board here, and honestly so.View board →