Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Every goal, both box scores, and each skater against our projection.
Sabres5
Maple Leafs4Final/OTSOG BUF 35 – TOR 30Scotiabank ArenaScoring
Final- 1st02:24Auston Matthews (6)wrist shot · from RoslovicBUF 0 – TOR 1
- 03:35Jack Quinn (3)wrist shot · from Benson and MetsaBUF 1 – TOR 1
- 13:10Kirill Marchenko (2)PPG · between the legs · from Tavares and RaddyshBUF 1 – TOR 2
- 2nd02:41Jack Quinn (4)wrist shot · from Ostlund and SamuelssonBUF 2 – TOR 2
- 11:13Kirill Marchenko (3)wrist shot · from TavaresBUF 2 – TOR 3
- 16:51Kirill Marchenko (4)wrist shot · from Sissons and CowanBUF 2 – TOR 4
- 3rd10:05Dennis Gilbert (1)snap shot · from Quinn and BensonBUF 3 – TOR 4
- 12:16Mattias Samuelsson (2)wrist shot · from ThompsonBUF 4 – TOR 4
- OT03:14Owen Power (2)snap shot · from Quinn and OstlundBUF 5 – TOR 4
By period
Goals, shots under| Goals | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 113 | 212 | 12 | 5 | 35 |
| TOR | 215 | 211 | 04 | 00 | 4 | 30 |
Three stars
- ★
K. MarchenkoTOR · R · 3 G - ★★
J. QuinnBUF · R · 2 G, 2 A - ★★★
O. PowerBUF · D · 1 G
Against our projection
Gold = at or past his number| Skater | SOG proj | SOG | PTS proj | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William NylanderTOR | 2.6 | 5 | 1.16 | 0 |
| Tage ThompsonBUF | 3.7 | 6 | 1.01 | 1 |
| Auston MatthewsTOR | 3.4 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 |
| Kirill MarchenkoTOR | 2.7 | 3 | 0.82 | 3 |
| John TavaresTOR | 2.4 | 0 | 0.79 | 2 |
| Zach BensonBUF | 2.3 | 4 | 0.76 | 2 |
| Jack QuinnBUF | 2.9 | 4 | 0.74 | 4 |
| Darren RaddyshTOR | 2.5 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 |
| Josh NorrisBUF | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 |
| Noah OstlundBUF | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 2 |
| Josh DoanBUF | 2.2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 |
| Ryan McLeodBUF | 1.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 |
| Jack RoslovicTOR | 2.2 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 |
| Peyton KrebsBUF | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 |
| Gavin McKennaTOR | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 |
| Owen PowerBUF | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 |
Box score
FinalBuffalo Sabres
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. QuinnR | 2 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18:04 |
| M. SamuelssonD | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:24 |
| N. OstlundC | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 |
| Z. BensonL | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:18 |
| O. PowerD | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:01 |
| D. GilbertD | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10:37 |
| T. ThompsonC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 |
| Z. MetsaD | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:36 |
| O. ZellwegerD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:28 |
| R. McLeodC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 |
| J. DoanR | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 |
| L. CrevierD | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 |
| P. KrebsC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 |
| K. HeleniusC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 |
| J. NorrisC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:50 |
| B. MalenstynL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 08:03 |
| J. DanforthR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 06:08 |
| S. CarrickC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 05:46 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 63:14 | W |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. MarchenkoR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 |
| J. TavaresC | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:47 |
| A. MatthewsC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 |
| D. RaddyshD | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 27:09 |
| J. RoslovicC | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:04 |
| C. SissonsC | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17:49 |
| E. CowanR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16:39 |
| J. McCabeD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:30 |
| W. NylanderR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 |
| O. Ekman-LarssonD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 19:35 |
| M. RiellyD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:35 |
| N. PaulL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 |
| T. StecherD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 17:08 |
| N. BlankenburgD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 |
| T. BluegerC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 |
| B. DuhaimeL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:42 |
| G. McKennaL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 06:36 |
| Z. MacEwenR | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 05:27 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 63:14 | O |
Team stats
Final| BUF | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Shots on goal | 30 |
| 25/57 | Faceoffs | 32/57 |
| 0/2 | Power play | 1/3 |
| 13 | Penalty minutes | 11 |
| 21 | Hits | 25 |
| 4 | Blocked shots | 10 |
| 17 | Giveaways | 20 |
| 5 | Takeaways | 4 |
What the model said
Before puck dropProjected scoreBUF 3.5 – TOR 3.0
Win chanceBUF 57%
Total 6.5Over 50%
These are projections, not picks. We post our number beside the market's and grade it in the open.