Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche
Every goal, both box scores, and each skater against our projection.
Lightning3
Avalanche6FinalSOG TBL 34 – COL 24Ball ArenaScoring
Final- 1st01:08Devon Toews (3)wrist shot · from Necas and MacKinnonTBL 0 – COL 1
- 05:52Nazem Kadri (1)PPG · snap shot · from Hughes and MacKinnonTBL 0 – COL 2
- 2nd00:24Fedor Svechkov (2)batted · from SchwartzTBL 0 – COL 3
- 08:13Jake Guentzel (5)PPG · snap shot · from D'Astous and PointTBL 1 – COL 3
- 13:57Artturi Lehkonen (9)snap shot · from MacKinnon and ToewsTBL 1 – COL 4
- 19:17Jake Guentzel (6)snap shot · from Point and HagelTBL 2 – COL 4
- 3rd04:18Nathan MacKinnon (7)wrist shot · from Lehkonen and NecasTBL 2 – COL 5
- 15:13Charle-Edouard D'Astous (2)snap shot · from Goncalves and CrozierTBL 3 – COL 5
- 17:19Martin Necas (6)wrist shot · from LandeskogTBL 3 – COL 6
By period
Goals, shots under| Goals | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 012 | 215 | 17 | 3 | 34 |
| COL | 29 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 24 |
Three stars
- ★
N. MacKinnonCOL · C · 1 G, 3 A - ★★
M. NecasCOL · C · 1 G, 2 A - ★★★
A. LehkonenCOL · L · 1 G, 1 A
Against our projection
Gold = at or past his number| Skater | SOG proj | SOG | PTS proj | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita KucherovTBL | 2.9 | 2 | 1.51 | 0 |
| Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 3.7 | 4 | 1.46 | 4 |
| Martin NecasCOL | 2.3 | 1 | 1.16 | 3 |
| Brandon HagelTBL | 3.2 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 |
| Jake GuentzelTBL | 2.5 | 7 | 0.99 | 2 |
| Cale MakarCOL | 2.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 |
| Artturi LehkonenCOL | 2.0 | 1 | 0.81 | 2 |
| Brock NelsonCOL | 2.0 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 |
| Brayden PointTBL | 2.0 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 |
| Nazem KadriCOL | 2.6 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 |
| Anthony CirelliTBL | 1.7 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 |
| John CarlsonTBL | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 |
| Gabriel LandeskogCOL | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 |
| Jaden SchwartzCOL | 1.4 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 |
| Parker KellyCOL | 1.2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 |
| T.J. HughesCOL | 1.7 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 |
Box score
FinalTampa Bay Lightning
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. GuentzelC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:12 |
| C. D'AstousD | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21:06 |
| B. PointC | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 |
| B. HagelL | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:33 |
| G. GoncalvesC | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 |
| M. CrozierD | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:17 |
| N. KucherovR | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:43 |
| J. CarlsonD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 |
| R. McDonaghD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 |
| A. CirelliC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:19 |
| E. CernakD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16:44 |
| J. MoserD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:15 |
| I. MikheyevR | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 |
| Z. GirgensonsC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:55 |
| C. GeekieC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12:35 |
| D. JamesC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:28 |
| P. HolmbergR | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 |
| V. HedmanD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 05:56 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 23 | 18 | 5 | .783 | 59:52 | L |
Colorado Avalanche
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnonC | 1 | 3 | 4 | +4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| M. NecasC | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:32 |
| A. LehkonenL | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:56 |
| D. ToewsD | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 |
| N. KadriC | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:03 |
| F. SvechkovC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 |
| T. HughesR | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 |
| J. SchwartzL | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 |
| G. LandeskogL | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:51 |
| C. MakarD | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 |
| B. KulakD | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 21:06 |
| S. MalinskiD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19:05 |
| B. NelsonC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:22 |
| J. MansonD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 |
| B. BurnsD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18:15 |
| L. O'ConnorR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:47 |
| P. KellyC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:17 |
| T. MakarL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 08:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 60:00 | W |
Team stats
Final| TBL | COL | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Shots on goal | 24 |
| 38/64 | Faceoffs | 26/64 |
| 1/6 | Power play | 1/3 |
| 8 | Penalty minutes | 14 |
| 30 | Hits | 16 |
| 12 | Blocked shots | 19 |
| 18 | Giveaways | 16 |
| 3 | Takeaways | 7 |
What the model said
Before puck dropProjected scoreTBL 3.1 – COL 3.4
Win chanceCOL 54%
Total 6.5Over 50%
These are projections, not picks. We post our number beside the market's and grade it in the open.