Toronto Maple Leafs vs Calgary Flames
Every goal, both box scores, and each skater against our projection.
Maple Leafs2
Flames5FinalSOG TOR 28 – CGY 34Scotiabank SaddledomeScoring
Final- 1st10:05Matvei Gridin (3)wrist shot · from Pospisil and NemecTOR 0 – CGY 1
- 11:50Mikael Backlund (2)wrist shot · from Coronato and FarabeeTOR 0 – CGY 2
- 2nd00:25Matvei Gridin (4)PPG · wrist shot · from Parekh and CooleyTOR 0 – CGY 3
- 12:54Easton Cowan (6)tip-in · from Stecher and RiellyTOR 1 – CGY 3
- 3rd06:06William Nylander (9)snap shot · from Roslovic and MatthewsTOR 2 – CGY 3
- 18:35Joel Farabee (3)wrist shot · from Coronato and KuznetsovTOR 2 – CGY 4
- 19:21Martin Pospisil (2)wrist shot · from Gridin and NemecTOR 2 – CGY 5
By period
Goals, shots under| Goals | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 111 | 19 | 2 | 28 |
| CGY | 211 | 113 | 210 | 5 | 34 |
Three stars
- ★
M. GridinCGY · R · 2 G, 1 A - ★★
J. FarabeeCGY · L · 1 G, 1 A - ★★★
Z. ParekhCGY · D · 1 A
Against our projection
Gold = at or past his number| Skater | SOG proj | SOG | PTS proj | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William NylanderTOR | 2.7 | 4 | 1.20 | 1 |
| Auston MatthewsTOR | 3.5 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 |
| Kirill MarchenkoTOR | 2.7 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 |
| Darren RaddyshTOR | 2.8 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 |
| Jack RoslovicTOR | 2.4 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 |
| Matt CoronatoCGY | 2.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 |
| Joel FarabeeCGY | 2.3 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 |
| Easton CowanTOR | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 |
| Morgan FrostCGY | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 |
| Gavin McKennaTOR | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 |
| Matvei GridinCGY | 2.1 | 5 | 0.52 | 3 |
| Mikael BacklundCGY | 2.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 |
| Morgan RiellyTOR | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 |
| Nick PaulTOR | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 |
| Ryan StromeCGY | 1.7 | 5 | 0.44 | 0 |
| Aydar SunievCGY | 1.6 | 6 | 0.44 | 0 |
Box score
FinalToronto Maple Leafs
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. NylanderR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:14 |
| E. CowanR | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15:30 |
| T. StecherD | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:04 |
| M. RiellyD | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:27 |
| A. MatthewsC | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19:00 |
| J. RoslovicC | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:43 |
| D. RaddyshD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:49 |
| O. Ekman-LarssonD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 |
| J. McCabeD | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:17 |
| N. PaulL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 |
| G. McKennaL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 |
| T. BluegerC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:27 |
| C. SissonsC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:17 |
| D. MermisD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13:33 |
| V. LettieriC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:54 |
| B. DuhaimeL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 |
| Z. MacEwenR | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10:12 |
| K. MarchenkoR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 58:55 | L |
Calgary Flames
| Skater | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. GridinR | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:11 |
| J. FarabeeL | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:08 |
| M. PospisilC | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12:20 |
| S. NemecD | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:51 |
| M. CoronatoR | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 |
| M. BacklundC | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18:32 |
| Z. ParekhD | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 |
| Y. KuznetsovD | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:57 |
| K. BahlD | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:46 |
| Z. WhitecloudD | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:47 |
| Y. SharangovichC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 |
| J. MiddletonD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 16:14 |
| M. FrostC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 |
| A. SunievL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 |
| R. StromeC | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 |
| A. KlapkaR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 |
| J. CastagnaC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 |
| B. OthmannL | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 09:22 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | DEC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Cooley | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 59:38 | W |
Team stats
Final| TOR | CGY | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Shots on goal | 34 |
| 34/57 | Faceoffs | 23/57 |
| 0/2 | Power play | 1/5 |
| 19 | Penalty minutes | 13 |
| 23 | Hits | 24 |
| 16 | Blocked shots | 4 |
| 12 | Giveaways | 13 |
| 3 | Takeaways | 6 |
What the model said
Before puck dropProjected scoreTOR 3.2 – CGY 3.1
Win chanceTOR 53%
Total 6.5Under 53%
These are projections, not picks. We post our number beside the market's and grade it in the open.