NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Tue, Sep 29, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedTue, Sep 29−1.81u38-37 · 50.7%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Tue, Sep 29 · graded at the close
75 skaters a book priced, across 5 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games5
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
CHI @ VGKBowen ByramDWizLine 1.14 · 68.6% underBook 51.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80u
CHI @ VGK0SOG
CHI @ VGKBowen ByramDWizLine 1.14 · 68.6% underBook 51.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uCHI @ VGK0SOG2
VAN @ EDMMarco RossiCWizLine 1.35 · 61.1% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−113Hit+0.89u
VAN @ EDM1SOG
VAN @ EDMMarco RossiCWizLine 1.35 · 61.1% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−113Hit+0.89uVAN @ EDM1SOG3
EDM vs VANVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 1.97 · 68.6% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00u
EDM vs VAN7SOG
EDM vs VANVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 1.97 · 68.6% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN7SOG4
TOR vs MTLEaston CowanRWWizLine 1.88 · 54.9% overBook 44.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00u
TOR vs MTL1SOG
TOR vs MTLEaston CowanRWWizLine 1.88 · 54.9% overBook 44.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uTOR vs MTL1SOG5
VGK vs CHIRasmus AnderssonDWizLine 2.25 · 64.3% overBook 54.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71u
VGK vs CHI2SOG
VGK vs CHIRasmus AnderssonDWizLine 2.25 · 64.3% overBook 54.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uVGK vs CHI2SOG6
EDM vs VANLeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.58 · 53.1% underBook 43.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+116Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN5SOG
EDM vs VANLeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.58 · 53.1% underBook 43.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+116Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN5SOG7
VGK vs CHIVictor OlofssonLWWizLine 1.98 · 57.6% overBook 48.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−106Hit+0.94uVGK vs CHI2SOG
VGK vs CHIVictor OlofssonLWWizLine 1.98 · 57.6% overBook 48.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−106Hit+0.94uVGK vs CHI2SOG8
FLA @ CARAnton LundellCWizLine 1.80 · 52.9% overBook 44.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15u
FLA @ CAR3SOG
FLA @ CARAnton LundellCWizLine 1.80 · 52.9% overBook 44.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15uFLA @ CAR3SOG9
CAR vs FLAJackson BlakeRWWizLine 2.06 · 66.2% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−164Hit+0.61u
CAR vs FLA2SOG
CAR vs FLAJackson BlakeRWWizLine 2.06 · 66.2% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−164Hit+0.61uCAR vs FLA2SOG10
MTL @ TORJuraj SlafkovskýLWWizLine 2.78 · 51.4% overBook 43.6% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+122Miss−1.00u
MTL @ TOR2SOG
MTL @ TORJuraj SlafkovskýLWWizLine 2.78 · 51.4% overBook 43.6% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+122Miss−1.00uMTL @ TOR2SOG11
EDM vs VANZach HymanLWWizLine 2.64 · 51.8% underBook 44.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN3SOG
EDM vs VANZach HymanLWWizLine 2.64 · 51.8% underBook 44.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN3SOG12
CHI @ VGKTyler BertuzziLWWizLine 1.88 · 55.1% overBook 48.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+102Miss−1.00uCHI @ VGK0SOG
CHI @ VGKTyler BertuzziLWWizLine 1.88 · 55.1% overBook 48.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+102Miss−1.00uCHI @ VGK0SOG13
VGK vs CHIIvan BarbashevLWWizLine 1.78 · 52.2% overBook 45.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uVGK vs CHI1SOG
VGK vs CHIIvan BarbashevLWWizLine 1.78 · 52.2% overBook 45.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uVGK vs CHI1SOG14
VGK vs CHIMark StoneRWWizLine 2.32 · 65.9% overBook 58.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uVGK vs CHI1SOG
VGK vs CHIMark StoneRWWizLine 2.32 · 65.9% overBook 58.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uVGK vs CHI1SOG15
BOS vs NYRMorgan GeekieCWizLine 2.23 · 63.9% overBook 57.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00u
BOS vs NYR1SOG
BOS vs NYRMorgan GeekieCWizLine 2.23 · 63.9% overBook 57.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uBOS vs NYR1SOG16
EDM vs VANKasperi KapanenRWWizLine 1.73 · 49.3% underBook 43.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN3SOG
EDM vs VANKasperi KapanenRWWizLine 1.73 · 49.3% underBook 43.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN3SOG17
VGK vs CHIShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.77 · 48.2% underBook 42.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+122Hit+1.22uVGK vs CHI1SOG
VGK vs CHIShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.77 · 48.2% underBook 42.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+122Hit+1.22uVGK vs CHI1SOG18
BOS vs NYRHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.46 · 57.8% underBook 51.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uBOS vs NYR0SOG
BOS vs NYRHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.46 · 57.8% underBook 51.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uBOS vs NYR0SOG19
BOS vs NYRJJ PeterkaRWWizLine 1.89 · 44.6% underBook 38.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+142Hit+1.42uBOS vs NYR1SOG
BOS vs NYRJJ PeterkaRWWizLine 1.89 · 44.6% underBook 38.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+142Hit+1.42uBOS vs NYR1SOG20
FLA @ CARCarter VerhaegheCWizLine 2.25 · 64.2% overBook 58.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uFLA @ CAR1SOG
FLA @ CARCarter VerhaegheCWizLine 2.25 · 64.2% overBook 58.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uFLA @ CAR1SOG21
NYR @ BOSWill CuylleLWWizLine 1.79 · 52.4% overBook 47.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00u
NYR @ BOS3SOG
NYR @ BOSWill CuylleLWWizLine 1.79 · 52.4% overBook 47.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uNYR @ BOS3SOG22
NYR @ BOSAdam FoxDWizLine 1.71 · 50.0% underBook 44.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+114Hit+1.14uNYR @ BOS0SOG
NYR @ BOSAdam FoxDWizLine 1.71 · 50.0% underBook 44.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+114Hit+1.14uNYR @ BOS0SOG23
NYR @ BOSMika ZibanejadCWizLine 2.65 · 51.5% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uNYR @ BOS2SOG
NYR @ BOSMika ZibanejadCWizLine 2.65 · 51.5% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uNYR @ BOS2SOG24
CAR vs FLAJordan StaalCWizLine 1.52 · 55.7% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uCAR vs FLA0SOG
CAR vs FLAJordan StaalCWizLine 1.52 · 55.7% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uCAR vs FLA0SOG25
FLA @ CARSeth JonesDWizLine 1.53 · 55.4% underBook 50.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uFLA @ CAR1SOG
FLA @ CARSeth JonesDWizLine 1.53 · 55.4% underBook 50.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uFLA @ CAR1SOG26
TOR vs MTLJack RoslovicCWizLine 1.94 · 43.3% underBook 38.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+142Miss−1.00uTOR vs MTL2SOG
TOR vs MTLJack RoslovicCWizLine 1.94 · 43.3% underBook 38.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+142Miss−1.00uTOR vs MTL2SOG27
EDM vs VANEvan BouchardDWizLine 2.71 · 50.1% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN6SOG
EDM vs VANEvan BouchardDWizLine 2.71 · 50.1% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uEDM vs VAN6SOG28
CAR vs FLAAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.33 · 59.1% underBook 54.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uCAR vs FLA2SOG
CAR vs FLAAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.33 · 59.1% underBook 54.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uCAR vs FLA2SOG29
NYR @ BOSNoah LabaCWizLine 1.11 · 69.8% underBook 65.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−230Hit+0.43uNYR @ BOS0SOG
NYR @ BOSNoah LabaCWizLine 1.11 · 69.8% underBook 65.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−230Hit+0.43uNYR @ BOS0SOG30
TOR vs MTLAuston MatthewsCWizLine 3.54 · 53.8% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uTOR vs MTL3SOG
TOR vs MTLAuston MatthewsCWizLine 3.54 · 53.8% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uTOR vs MTL3SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →