NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Wed, Sep 30, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedWed, Sep 30+0.47u25-20 · 55.6%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Wed, Sep 30 · graded at the close
45 skaters a book priced, across 3 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games3
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
PIT @ PHISidney CrosbyCWizLine 1.91 · 70.1% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00u
PIT @ PHI3SOG
PIT @ PHISidney CrosbyCWizLine 1.91 · 70.1% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uPIT @ PHI3SOG2
COL vs LAKCale MakarDWizLine 2.29 · 60.3% underBook 50.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91u
COL vs LAK1SOG
COL vs LAKCale MakarDWizLine 2.29 · 60.3% underBook 50.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uCOL vs LAK1SOG3
NYI @ TOREmil HeinemanLWWizLine 2.17 · 62.5% overBook 52.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00u
NYI @ TOR1SOG
NYI @ TOREmil HeinemanLWWizLine 2.17 · 62.5% overBook 52.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uNYI @ TOR1SOG4
COL vs LAKGabriel LandeskogLWWizLine 2.01 · 67.4% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−159Hit+0.63uCOL vs LAK1SOG
COL vs LAKGabriel LandeskogLWWizLine 2.01 · 67.4% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−159Hit+0.63uCOL vs LAK1SOG5
PHI vs PITPorter MartoneRWWizLine 2.27 · 60.8% underBook 51.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87u
PHI vs PIT0SOG
PHI vs PITPorter MartoneRWWizLine 2.27 · 60.8% underBook 51.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uPHI vs PIT0SOG6
PIT @ PHIEvgeni MalkinCWizLine 2.32 · 65.9% overBook 56.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uPIT @ PHI2SOG
PIT @ PHIEvgeni MalkinCWizLine 2.32 · 65.9% overBook 56.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uPIT @ PHI2SOG7
NYI @ TORMatias MaccelliLWWizLine 1.47 · 57.4% underBook 48.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−109Hit+0.92uNYI @ TOR1SOG
NYI @ TORMatias MaccelliLWWizLine 1.47 · 57.4% underBook 48.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−109Hit+0.92uNYI @ TOR1SOG8
PIT @ PHIErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.94 · 69.3% underBook 60.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−182Miss−1.00uPIT @ PHI3SOG
PIT @ PHIErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.94 · 69.3% underBook 60.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−182Miss−1.00uPIT @ PHI3SOG9
LAK @ COLTrevor MooreLWWizLine 2.27 · 64.8% overBook 56.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67u
LAK @ COL2SOG
LAK @ COLTrevor MooreLWWizLine 2.27 · 64.8% overBook 56.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67uLAK @ COL2SOG10
NYI @ TORTony DeAngeloDWizLine 2.06 · 59.8% overBook 52.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uNYI @ TOR0SOG
NYI @ TORTony DeAngeloDWizLine 2.06 · 59.8% overBook 52.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uNYI @ TOR0SOG11
NYI @ TORBo HorvatCWizLine 3.46 · 65.2% overBook 58.6% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uNYI @ TOR4SOG
NYI @ TORBo HorvatCWizLine 3.46 · 65.2% overBook 58.6% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uNYI @ TOR4SOG12
LAK @ COLAlex LaferriereRWWizLine 2.63 · 48.1% overBook 41.9% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uLAK @ COL2SOG
LAK @ COLAlex LaferriereRWWizLine 2.63 · 48.1% overBook 41.9% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uLAK @ COL2SOG13
NYI @ TORVictor EklundRWWizLine 1.96 · 57.1% overBook 50.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uNYI @ TOR2SOG
NYI @ TORVictor EklundRWWizLine 1.96 · 57.1% overBook 50.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uNYI @ TOR2SOG14
LAK @ COLQuinton ByfieldRWWizLine 2.21 · 62.3% underBook 56.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uLAK @ COL3SOG
LAK @ COLQuinton ByfieldRWWizLine 2.21 · 62.3% underBook 56.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uLAK @ COL3SOG15
COL vs LAKNazem KadriCWizLine 2.10 · 65.2% underBook 59.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−159Hit+0.63uCOL vs LAK2SOG
COL vs LAKNazem KadriCWizLine 2.10 · 65.2% underBook 59.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−159Hit+0.63uCOL vs LAK2SOG16
PHI vs PITJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.28 · 63.8% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61uPHI vs PIT0SOG
PHI vs PITJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.28 · 63.8% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61uPHI vs PIT0SOG17
NYI @ TORBrayden SchennCWizLine 1.91 · 56.0% overBook 50.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uNYI @ TOR1SOG
NYI @ TORBrayden SchennCWizLine 1.91 · 56.0% overBook 50.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uNYI @ TOR1SOG18
NYI @ TORKyle PalmieriCWizLine 2.68 · 49.3% overBook 43.3% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uNYI @ TOR4SOG
NYI @ TORKyle PalmieriCWizLine 2.68 · 49.3% overBook 43.3% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uNYI @ TOR4SOG19
PIT @ PHIEgor ChinakhovRWWizLine 2.10 · 65.2% underBook 59.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−173Miss−1.00uPIT @ PHI3SOG
PIT @ PHIEgor ChinakhovRWWizLine 2.10 · 65.2% underBook 59.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−173Miss−1.00uPIT @ PHI3SOG20
LAK @ COLAdrian KempeRWWizLine 2.51 · 54.8% underBook 49.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uLAK @ COL3SOG
LAK @ COLAdrian KempeRWWizLine 2.51 · 54.8% underBook 49.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uLAK @ COL3SOG21
LAK @ COLBrandt ClarkeDWizLine 1.76 · 48.4% underBook 43.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uLAK @ COL1SOG
LAK @ COLBrandt ClarkeDWizLine 1.76 · 48.4% underBook 43.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uLAK @ COL1SOG22
PIT @ PHITommy NovakCWizLine 1.63 · 52.4% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uPIT @ PHI0SOG
PIT @ PHITommy NovakCWizLine 1.63 · 52.4% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uPIT @ PHI0SOG23
TOR vs NYIAuston MatthewsCWizLine 3.36 · 57.3% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−127Hit+0.79u
TOR vs NYI1SOG
TOR vs NYIAuston MatthewsCWizLine 3.36 · 57.3% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−127Hit+0.79uTOR vs NYI1SOG24
COL vs LAKNathan MacKinnonCWizLine 3.90 · 46.7% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uCOL vs LAK8SOG
COL vs LAKNathan MacKinnonCWizLine 3.90 · 46.7% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uCOL vs LAK8SOG25
TOR vs NYIKirill MarchenkoRWWizLine 2.83 · 52.5% overBook 48.5% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG−104Hit+0.96uTOR vs NYI3SOG
TOR vs NYIKirill MarchenkoRWWizLine 2.83 · 52.5% overBook 48.5% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG−104Hit+0.96uTOR vs NYI3SOG26
COL vs LAKMartin NecasCWizLine 2.66 · 51.3% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−102Miss−1.00uCOL vs LAK4SOG
COL vs LAKMartin NecasCWizLine 2.66 · 51.3% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−102Miss−1.00uCOL vs LAK4SOG27
TOR vs NYIWilliam NylanderRWWizLine 2.58 · 53.1% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88uTOR vs NYI1SOG
TOR vs NYIWilliam NylanderRWWizLine 2.58 · 53.1% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88uTOR vs NYI1SOG28
PHI vs PITOwen TippettRWWizLine 2.48 · 55.6% underBook 52.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uPHI vs PIT4SOG
PHI vs PITOwen TippettRWWizLine 2.48 · 55.6% underBook 52.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uPHI vs PIT4SOG29
TOR vs NYIJohn TavaresCWizLine 2.37 · 41.9% overBook 39.0% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+148Miss−1.00uTOR vs NYI1SOG
TOR vs NYIJohn TavaresCWizLine 2.37 · 41.9% overBook 39.0% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+148Miss−1.00uTOR vs NYI1SOG30
COL vs LAKBrock NelsonCWizLine 2.24 · 64.0% overBook 61.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−185Miss−1.00uCOL vs LAK1SOG
COL vs LAKBrock NelsonCWizLine 2.24 · 64.0% overBook 61.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−185Miss−1.00uCOL vs LAK1SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →