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NHL Shots on Goal

Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.

Sat, Oct 24 · 12 games

663 skaters priced for the slate. The WizLine is his shrunk rate at his projected minutes against tonight's opponent. Over is the chance he clears the line. Book prices and WizEdge fill in once lines post. Books hang NHL props about a day out.

Games12
Position
SkaterMatchupWizLine
1EDM vs TOR7:00 PMConnor McDavidCOver 2.5 · 71.6%23:46 projected TOINo line yetEDMEDM vs TOR7:00 PM3.85SOG
2MIN @ SEA10:00 PMMatt BoldyLWOver 2.5 · 71.0%22:05 projected TOINo line yetMINMIN @ SEA10:00 PM3.81SOG
3DET @ CGY10:00 PMAlex DeBrincatRWOver 2.5 · 69.8%20:02 projected TOINo line yetDETDET @ CGY10:00 PM3.74SOG
4SJS @ BOS7:00 PMMacklin CelebriniCOver 2.5 · 68.5%22:00 projected TOINo line yetSJSSJS @ BOS7:00 PM3.66SOG
5BUF @ WSH7:00 PMTage ThompsonCOver 2.5 · 65.3%19:59 projected TOINo line yetBUFBUF @ WSH7:00 PM3.47SOG
6MIN @ SEA10:00 PMKirill KaprizovLWOver 2.5 · 64.8%21:53 projected TOINo line yetMINMIN @ SEA10:00 PM3.44SOG
7NJD vs LAK3:30 PMJack HughesCOver 2.5 · 62.3%20:30 projected TOINo line yetNJDNJD vs LAK3:30 PM3.30SOG
8BOS vs SJS7:00 PMDavid PastrnakRWOver 2.5 · 61.6%19:50 projected TOINo line yetBOSBOS vs SJS7:00 PM3.26SOG
9EDM vs TOR7:00 PMLeon DraisaitlCOver 2.5 · 61.5%21:42 projected TOINo line yetEDMEDM vs TOR7:00 PM3.26SOG
10ANA @ PHI1:00 PMCutter GauthierLWOver 2.5 · 61.2%17:35 projected TOINo line yetANAANA @ PHI1:00 PM3.25SOG
11TOR @ EDM7:00 PMAuston MatthewsCOver 2.5 · 60.9%21:02 projected TOINo line yetTORTOR @ EDM7:00 PM3.23SOG
12DET @ CGY10:00 PMDylan LarkinCOver 2.5 · 60.0%21:10 projected TOINo line yetDETDET @ CGY10:00 PM3.18SOG
13MIN @ SEA10:00 PMJoel Eriksson EkCOver 2.5 · 58.6%20:47 projected TOINo line yetMINMIN @ SEA10:00 PM3.11SOG
14TBL @ UTA9:00 PMBrandon HagelLWOver 2.5 · 57.5%21:25 projected TOINo line yetTBLTBL @ UTA9:00 PM3.06SOG
15EDM vs TOR7:00 PMEvan BouchardDOver 2.5 · 56.8%26:01 projected TOINo line yetEDMEDM vs TOR7:00 PM3.02SOG
16CBJ vs VGK7:00 PMZach WerenskiDOver 2.5 · 56.4%28:55 projected TOINo line yetCBJCBJ vs VGK7:00 PM3.01SOG
17VGK @ CBJ7:00 PMJack EichelCOver 2.5 · 56.4%19:33 projected TOINo line yetVGKVGK @ CBJ7:00 PM3.01SOG
18DET @ CGY10:00 PMViktor ArvidssonLWOver 2.5 · 56.3%18:48 projected TOINo line yetDETDET @ CGY10:00 PM3.00SOG
19NJD vs LAK3:30 PMTimo MeierRWOver 2.5 · 55.7%16:22 projected TOINo line yetNJDNJD vs LAK3:30 PM2.97SOG
20NSH @ PIT7:00 PMFilip ForsbergLWOver 2.5 · 54.4%20:22 projected TOINo line yetNSHNSH @ PIT7:00 PM2.92SOG
21LAK @ NJD3:30 PMAdrian KempeRWOver 2.5 · 53.0%20:39 projected TOINo line yetLAKLAK @ NJD3:30 PM2.85SOG
22LAK @ NJD3:30 PMArtemi PanarinLWOver 2.5 · 52.2%21:23 projected TOINo line yetLAKLAK @ NJD3:30 PM2.81SOG
23BUF @ WSH7:00 PMJack QuinnRWOver 2.5 · 51.8%19:41 projected TOINo line yetBUFBUF @ WSH7:00 PM2.79SOG
24TBL @ UTA9:00 PMNikita KucherovRWOver 2.5 · 51.1%21:18 projected TOINo line yetTBLTBL @ UTA9:00 PM2.76SOG
25PIT vs NSH7:00 PMRickard RakellRWOver 2.5 · 51.0%19:42 projected TOINo line yetPITPIT vs NSH7:00 PM2.76SOG
26WSH vs BUF7:00 PMJakob ChychrunDOver 2.5 · 50.7%24:29 projected TOINo line yetWSHWSH vs BUF7:00 PM2.75SOG
27CAR @ STL7:00 PMSeth JarvisRWOver 2.5 · 50.4%17:53 projected TOINo line yetCARCAR @ STL7:00 PM2.73SOG
28EDM vs TOR7:00 PMZach HymanLWOver 2.5 · 49.7%18:47 projected TOINo line yetEDMEDM vs TOR7:00 PM2.70SOG
29MIN @ SEA10:00 PMQuinn HughesDOver 2.5 · 48.5%27:24 projected TOINo line yetMINMIN @ SEA10:00 PM2.65SOG
30ANA @ PHI1:00 PMBeckett SenneckeRWOver 2.5 · 48.5%20:54 projected TOINo line yetANAANA @ PHI1:00 PM2.65SOG

Not a play. Every one of these is graded against the closing line the morning after, and nothing is posted until a market beats the book on a full season, out of sample.

This season, graded

2026-27 · 2791 graded
Season to date−28.76u1480-1311 · 53.0%
Every over, blind−253.30u1327-1464 · 47.5%

Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything. Latest graded night, Thu, Oct 22 →

2026-27 · the rate behind it

715 skaters over 2026-27, 1,634 hours of ice time. Rate is per 60 minutes, pulled toward the player's position by 4.0 hours of prior — solved from this season, not a checked-in number.

SkaterTeamPer 60
1NJDTimo MeierRW10 GP · 16:22 TOI · 43 SOGUnshrunk 15.77 per 60NJDNJD10.36SOG/60
2BUFTage ThompsonC10 GP · 19:59 TOI · 45 SOGUnshrunk 13.51 per 60BUFBUF9.78SOG/60
3MINMatt BoldyLW11 GP · 22:02 TOI · 51 SOGUnshrunk 12.63 per 60MINMIN9.67SOG/60
4WPGKyle ConnorLW10 GP · 21:02 TOI · 44 SOGUnshrunk 12.55 per 60WPGWPG9.42SOG/60
5COLNathan MacKinnonC10 GP · 21:17 TOI · 44 SOGUnshrunk 12.40 per 60COLCOL9.37SOG/60
6TBLBrandon HagelLW9 GP · 21:32 TOI · 41 SOGUnshrunk 12.69 per 60TBLTBL9.37SOG/60
7FLABrady TkachukLW11 GP · 16:43 TOI · 38 SOGUnshrunk 12.40 per 60FLAFLA9.16SOG/60
8DETAlex DeBrincatRW10 GP · 20:02 TOI · 39 SOGUnshrunk 11.69 per 60DETDET8.96SOG/60
9SJSMacklin CelebriniC9 GP · 22:49 TOI · 39 SOGUnshrunk 11.40 per 60SJSSJS8.85SOG/60
10STLMason McTavishC10 GP · 15:42 TOI · 31 SOGUnshrunk 11.85 per 60STLSTL8.72SOG/60
11UTAMichael CarconeLW5 GP · 12:29 TOI · 17 SOGUnshrunk 16.34 per 60UTAUTA8.67SOG/60
12NJDJack HughesC10 GP · 20:30 TOI · 37 SOGUnshrunk 10.83 per 60NJDNJD8.59SOG/60
13ANACutter GauthierLW9 GP · 17:30 TOI · 30 SOGUnshrunk 11.43 per 60ANAANA8.56SOG/60
14NYRPavel DorofeyevRW12 GP · 17:24 TOI · 37 SOGUnshrunk 10.64 per 60NYRNYR8.52SOG/60
15CARLogan StankovenC12 GP · 17:41 TOI · 37 SOGUnshrunk 10.47 per 60CARCAR8.46SOG/60
16TORJack RoslovicC12 GP · 16:30 TOI · 35 SOGUnshrunk 10.60 per 60TORTOR8.45SOG/60
17MTLCole CaufieldRW9 GP · 19:41 TOI · 32 SOGUnshrunk 10.84 per 60MTLMTL8.45SOG/60
18CARAndrei SvechnikovRW12 GP · 17:47 TOI · 37 SOGUnshrunk 10.41 per 60CARCAR8.43SOG/60
19BOSDavid PastrnakRW11 GP · 19:38 TOI · 37 SOGUnshrunk 10.28 per 60BOSBOS8.39SOG/60
20UTADylan GuentherRW11 GP · 16:45 TOI · 32 SOGUnshrunk 10.42 per 60UTAUTA8.30SOG/60
21DALTyler SeguinC10 GP · 14:59 TOI · 27 SOGUnshrunk 10.81 per 60DALDAL8.27SOG/60
22CARJackson BlakeRW12 GP · 18:25 TOI · 36 SOGUnshrunk 9.78 per 60CARCAR8.16SOG/60
23NYIBo HorvatC10 GP · 20:45 TOI · 34 SOGUnshrunk 9.83 per 60NYINYI8.14SOG/60
24EDMLeon DraisaitlC10 GP · 21:42 TOI · 35 SOGUnshrunk 9.68 per 60EDMEDM8.10SOG/60
25DALJason RobertsonLW10 GP · 20:16 TOI · 33 SOGUnshrunk 9.77 per 60DALDAL8.10SOG/60
26LAKAdrian KempeRW8 GP · 20:43 TOI · 28 SOGUnshrunk 10.14 per 60LAKLAK8.09SOG/60
27OTTFabian ZetterlundLW11 GP · 13:14 TOI · 25 SOGUnshrunk 10.30 per 60OTTOTT8.05SOG/60
28MINJoel Eriksson EkC11 GP · 20:44 TOI · 36 SOGUnshrunk 9.47 per 60MINMIN8.04SOG/60
29SJSTyler ToffoliC11 GP · 12:47 TOI · 24 SOGUnshrunk 10.24 per 60SJSSJS8.00SOG/60
30FLASam ReinhartC11 GP · 20:22 TOI · 35 SOGUnshrunk 9.37 per 60FLAFLA7.98SOG/60

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