Play of the Day: 3 for 6
The Play of the Day went 3 for 6 this week, good for a 1% ROI. That's a coin-flip week for the single headline call — not a wipeout, not one to brag about either.
The ranked tiers
Widen out to the ranked matchups and the picture holds together in places and thins in others. Top 3 went 32 of 61. Top 5 went 131 of 305. Top 10 went 276 of 632. The full board finished 2944 of 9505.
That's the honest spread — tighter samples at the top, a much bigger pool once you get to the full board.
Hitter boards: Hits held up, power didn't
Across the hitter props, Hits was the strongest full-board number at 53% on 1692 graded lines. Total bases followed at 48% on 562, and H+R+RBI came in at 45% on 445.
Runs sat at 30% and Walks at 29%, both on 900 graded lines. RBI was 24% on 900. Home runs and Stolen bases were the two boards that struggled hardest — 9% and 6% respectively, both on 900. DFS points landed at 37% on 900.
Pitcher boards: the best numbers of the week
The pitcher side is where the week's best marks showed up. Hits allowed hit 83% in the top 3 on 89 graded lines, with the full board at 49%. Pitcher outs went 60% at the top and 53% across the full board on 75 lines.
Pitcher DFS points ran 50% in the top 3 and 43% on the full board of 100. Pitcher strikeouts landed at 43% top 3 and 49% full board on 173 lines. Earned runs was the softer one — 33% at the top, 49% full board on 93. Pitcher walks finished at 57% full board on 84 lines.
Golf: Scheffler's third, and a missed winner
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson graded 143 lines. Our top pick, Scottie Scheffler, finished third. We ranked the eventual winner 9th — that's a miss on the winner call, plain and simple.
Of the top 10 graded, 8 made the cut.
Soccer: MLS, six games
Soccer coverage this week came from MLS, six games graded. Match result hit 4 of 6. Over/under 2.5 hit 4 of 6. Both teams to score hit 4 of 6 — three markets, the same record across all of them.
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.