Plays of the Day: 4 of 6
MatchWiz graded 497 rows across MLB, golf and soccer this week.
The headline call, the Play of the Day, went 4 of 6. That's a 16% ROI for the pool.
The Ranked Matchups
Down the tiers, the top 3 ranked matchups hit 53 of 102. The top 5 came in at 202 of 467. The top 10 landed at 440 of 959. The full board went 5077 of 14811.
That's the usual shape — hit rate climbs as the pool narrows, though the top 3 tier ran cooler than the top 5 and top 10 this week.
Stat Boards: Contact Up, Power Down
On the individual stat boards, Hits led the field at 57% across 1692 graded lines. Total bases held at 52% across 1105, and H+R+RBI settled at 51% across 816. DFS points finished at 43%.
Power and small-ball props lagged badly. Home runs hit at just 13%, Stolen bases at 5%, and Walks landed at 27% — all across 1692 graded lines. RBI wasn't much better at 31%, and Runs sat at 38%.
The pitcher side was sharper. Pitcher strikeouts hit 55% overall and 57% in the top 3, across 174 graded. Pitcher outs matched that 57% top 3 mark, settling at 48% overall across 173. Pitcher walks hit 54% overall despite a cooler 45% top 3 mark across 165. Pitcher DFS points hit 62% in the top 3 but dropped to 34% across the full 186. Earned runs sat at 46%, and Hits allowed at 42%.
Golf: Schwab Challenge
At the Charles Schwab Challenge, MatchWiz graded 132 matchups.
Our top-ranked player, Ludvig Åberg, finished 17th. The golfer who actually won the event was ranked 34th on our board — a clean miss at the top.
The top 10 held up better than the headline miss suggests: 8 of the 10 graded top-10 calls made the cut.
Soccer: One Game, Split Result
MLS carried the only soccer market graded this week, from a single game.
Match result hit, 1 for 1. Over/under 2.5 missed, 0 for 1. Both teams to score also missed, 0 for 1.
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.