The Play of the Day: 3 for 16
The Play of the Day pool hit 3 of 16 this week. ROI came in at -67%. That's the number that matters most, and it's ugly.
No way to dress that up. When the single headline call misses this often, the week reads as a loss no matter what else happens on the boards. We report it exactly as graded.
Posted Plays: 19 of 44
Away from the headline call, the full slate of posted plays went 19 of 44. Split by type, team totals hit 16 of 28. Player props hit 3 of 16.
By lean, overs hit 18 of 28. Unders hit just 1 of 6. That's the clearest pattern in the week's calls — the model's overs landed, its unders mostly didn't.
The home run props were a wipeout. Ten were posted across the week — Jake Mangum, Luis Arraez, Victor Robles, Byron Buxton, Iván Herrera, Nick Kurtz, Owen Caissie, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Sal Stewart, Shohei Ohtani — and none of them hit.
Ohtani had the roughest June 24. He was tagged for a home run at +215 that never landed, and separately for under 6.5 strikeouts — he punched out eight, blowing through the number.
Strikeout-over calls fared better: Kendry Rojas (over 2.5, actual 4), Peter Lambert (over 3.5, actual 6) and Zac Thornton (over 3.5, actual 7) all hit. The under side went the other way — Reid Detmers, and Chris Sale, who was called under 8.5 strikeouts and finished with 10.
The best team-total call of the week was the Chicago White Sox on June 26, posted over 3.5 runs at -150. They put up 22. The worst was the Athletics that same day, called under 4.5 — they scored 9.
The Ranked Boards
Top 3 ranked matchups hit 55 of 96. Top 5 hit 205 of 453. Top 10 hit 413 of 936. The full board hit 4,980 of 14,894 across 606 graded rows for the week.
The stat boards varied a lot by category. Hits led the everyday-player boards at 59% on the full board, with H+R+RBI at 46% and Total bases at 47%. Home runs sat at 11% and Stolen bases at just 6% — the two hardest categories to call this week.
On the pitcher side, Hits allowed hit 78% in the top 3 and 47% on the full board. Pitcher outs went 63% top 3, 54% full. Pitcher walks was the outlier — just 20% in the top 3, versus 50% on the full board.
Golf: Travelers Championship
72 players graded at the Travelers Championship. Our top pick, Scottie Scheffler, finished runner-up.
All 10 of our top 10 graded players made the cut. But we ranked the eventual winner 13th — a miss on the top of the leaderboard even as the depth of the board held up.
Every posted play this week
19 of 44 landed — 16 of 28 on team totals, 3 of 16 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 | Jake Mangum | to hit a home run | +1500 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-23 | Kendry Rojas | over 2.5 strikeouts | -125 | 4 | Hit |
| 06-23 | Luis Arraez | to hit a home run | +1100 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-23 | Peter Lambert | over 3.5 strikeouts | -122 | 6 | Hit |
| 06-23 | Victor Robles | to hit a home run | +1300 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -150 | 9 | Hit |
| 06-24 | Athletics | team total over 3.5 | -143 | 1 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Boston Red Sox | team total under 6.5 | -135 | 6 | Hit |
| 06-24 | Byron Buxton | to hit a home run | +335 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -137 | 10 | Hit |
| 06-24 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 3.5 | -133 | 3 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Houston Astros | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 3 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Iván Herrera | to hit a home run | +600 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -100 | 3 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Nick Kurtz | to hit a home run | +350 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Owen Caissie | to hit a home run | +600 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | to hit a home run | +370 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -120 | 11 | Hit |
| 06-24 | Sal Stewart | to hit a home run | +430 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Shohei Ohtani | to hit a home run | +215 | 0 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Shohei Ohtani | under 6.5 strikeouts | -140 | 8 | Miss |
| 06-24 | Tampa Bay Rays | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 5 | Hit |
| 06-24 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | +110 | 4 | Hit |
| 06-25 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 4.5 | +105 | 4 | Miss |
| 06-25 | Detroit Tigers | team total over 3.5 | -150 | 1 | Miss |
| 06-26 | Athletics | team total under 4.5 | -142 | 9 | Miss |
| 06-26 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -118 | 3 | Miss |
| 06-26 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 3.5 | -150 | 22 | Hit |
| 06-26 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 8 | Hit |
| 06-26 | San Diego Padres | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 7 | Hit |
| 06-26 | Tampa Bay Rays | team total over 4.5 | -100 | 6 | Hit |
| 06-26 | Zac Thornton | over 3.5 strikeouts | -148 | 7 | Hit |
| 06-27 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 3.5 | -148 | 2 | Miss |
| 06-27 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 9 | Hit |
| 06-27 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 3.5 | -143 | 5 | Hit |
| 06-27 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 4.5 | -135 | 5 | Hit |
| 06-27 | New York Mets | team total under 4.5 | -125 | 6 | Miss |
| 06-27 | Reid Detmers | under 7.5 strikeouts | -140 | 8 | Miss |
| 06-27 | San Francisco Giants | team total over 3.5 | +111 | 5 | Hit |
| 06-27 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -120 | 4 | Hit |
| 06-28 | Chris Sale | under 8.5 strikeouts | -145 | 10 | Miss |
| 06-28 | Cleveland Guardians | team total over 3.5 | -115 | 6 | Hit |
| 06-28 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 3.5 | -139 | 2 | Miss |
| 06-28 | Texas Rangers | team total over 3.5 | -141 | 3 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.